FRANCE:The French left is under threat from the political centre. It could put an end to the socialists' presidential aspirations, writes Lara Marlowein Paris
How does a French presidential candidate fight off an existential challenge from "the extreme centre"? The question became acutely important to the socialist Ségolène Royal this week, when "the third man", François Bayrou, leader of the centre-right UDF, caught up with her in opinion polls.
If Royal does not stop the haemorrhage of socialist voters to Bayrou's camp, the May 6th first round run-off could pit him - and not her - against the right-wing leader, Nicolas Sarkozy.
Ever since the fragmentation of the left knocked the socialist candidate Lionel Jospin out of the presidential race in April 2002, left-wing voters have had it drummed in to them to "vote useful". But since Bayrou has a better chance of beating Sarkozy in the run-off, a vote for Bayrou now appears to be more "useful" to Sarkozy's opponents.
This hard fact has sent a wave of panic through the Socialist Party. On a tactical level, campaign workers have been instructed not to comment on opinion polls, to put a brave face on the situation and desist from soul-searching. It hasn't helped that Royal's criticism of the party "elephants" on Sunday was seen as a sign of division, when the socialists desperately need to show unity.
"Because of the internal debate," she said, "the leaders of the Socialist Party didn't rally sufficiently around me at the beginning of this campaign." In addition to the "elephants", "media bias" and "misleading" opinion polls are blamed by socialist supporters for her difficulties.
Though the election is 5½ weeks away, Royal's future will probably be decided in the next week or two. For this reason the socialist candidate is making five television appearances this week. After the campaign officially begins next Monday, on-air time will be meted out equally to all candidates.
Royal is trying to decide whether to veer left, as French socialists usually do when they're in trouble, or try to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, from far left to centre-right. She has confused voters by bouncing between these two strategies throughout her campaign.
A poll published by Libération newspaper yesterday brought more bad news for Royal. Only 54 per cent of those polled said they could tell the difference between the Bayrou and Royal presidential programmes. Sixty-four per cent saw the difference between Bayrou and Sarkozy.
Royal's supposed stature as a head of state (22 per cent positive responses) and competence (22 per cent) have been her weakest points. She and Bayrou scored virtually equally on these two questions, while Sarkozy obtained a 52 per cent rating for stature and 50 per cent for competence. Bayrou beat both candidates for honesty, at 38 per cent, with Royal and Sarkozy tied at 26 per cent.
When Bayrou's rise in the polls began in mid-February, both the Royal and Sarkozy camps mocked his contention that France's left-right polarisation is unhealthy. No more; the idea has proven popular with voters. In recent days, both have tried to counter Bayrou by putting forward their most centrist allies: the former socialist finance minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn for Royal, and the former president of the European Parliament, Simone Veil, for Mr Sarkozy.
Bayrou continues to blur the dividing line between left and right. On Monday night he praised both the 1950s centre-left prime minister Pierre Mendès-France and the Messiah of the French right, Gen Charles de Gaulle.
Also on Monday night, at an invitation-only socialist rally for film stars and intellectuals, the socialist candidate sat between Jeanne Moreau and Emmanuelle Béart. "We mustn't give a monopoly on 'national identity' to a few," Royal said, attacking Sarkozy.
"We republicans must not confuse patriotism, which is love for one's own, with nationalism, which is hatred of others."
A study by the Institute of Political Science, published by Le Monde yesterday, shows that uncertainty, distrust of political parties and shifting allegiance are the hallmarks of this campaign. Sixty-one per cent of those polled said they trusted neither the left nor the right to govern. The poll was particularly disheartening for the left; while 61 per cent of UMP voters expressed confidence in their party's ability to rule, only 44 per cent of socialists thought the left was capable of running the country.