Dublin's urban sprawl now extends as far south as County Wexford and Gorey town more and more resembles a commuter suburb of the capital. Despite these social changes,though, the mainstream political parties still retain a grip on the constituency.
Fine Gael suffered a setback in 2002, however, winning only one seat. Outgoing TD and former agriculture minister Ivan Yates had stepped-down before the election and the party fell into disarray.
Fine Gael's share of the vote dropped by a third and sitting deputy Michael D'Arcy snr lost out, although newcomer Paul Kehoe held on to the old Yates seat in the Enniscorthy area.
Politics abhors a vacuum and Dr Liam Twomey, running as an Independent on health issues and the inadequacies of Wexford General Hospital, took the second seat from Fine Gael. Having pulled off a major electoral coup, the Rosslare-based GP later joined the main Opposition party and was immediately appointed health spokesman.
Paul Kehoe has a lower profile nationally as Fine Gael's chief whip but his local base is strong. A farmer from Bree near Enniscorthy, he was previously national chairman of Macra na Feirme and a youth officer for the GAA in Wexford. The farm vote still counts in parts of Wexford and the GAA connection is an obvious boon.
Fine Gael is also running Michael D'Arcy jnr, son of the former TD. Based in Gorey he was elected to the county council in 2004. A former player on the county's junior and under-21 football teams, D'Arcy is "in with a shout" for a Fine Gael seat.
Fianna Fáil frontrunner John Browne, currently Minister of State for the Marine, must be considered a shoo-in, having topped the poll in both the 1997 and 2002 general elections.
His party colleague Tony Dempsey is standing down and Fianna Fáil is running two new candidates, councillors Seán Connick, a businessman and wheelchair-user from New Ross, and Lisa McDonald, a solicitor and member of the party's national executive committee of 15.
With Fine Gael in free-fall last time, Fianna Fáil should have been bidding for a third seat but, in the event, its vote went up only 1 per cent. The party's showing in the polls suggests it will have to be satisfied with two seats again this time, with Connick seen as the best prospect.
Despite some talk of a running-mate, Labour's Brendan Howlin is again standing on his own. First elected to the Dáil 20 years ago, he held two ministries during the party's last term of office, health in 1993-94 and environment from 1994 to 1997. There is a strong Labour tradition in Wexford and the highly experienced Howlin can expect to be re-elected at the end of the day. He has been mentioned as an alternative leader in the event of coalition with Fianna Fáil.
The high-profile Progressive Democrats candidate is Colm O'Gorman, founder and director of One in Four, which supports victims of sexual violence. He suffered a publicity setback when a TNS/Mrbi poll for TG4 last November put him at only 1 per cent. Recently nominated to the Seanad in place of late party colleague Kate Walsh and appointed as the PD education spokesman, O'Gorman is bound to do better than that poll suggests but without making it to the Lower House.
Sinn Féin's John Dwyer from New Ross polled an impressive 4,964 first preferences in 2002 but, in the absence of significant transfers, was eliminated on the fifth count. He must be seen as a very formidable contender on this occasion too, but will probably run up against the same problem.
Green Party candidate Tom Harpur should benefit from growing concern about environmental issues and former South East Radio presenter Alan McGuire will also get a respectabe vote as an Independent. But in terms of party strength, whatever about individual candidates, the smart money is banking on no change in Wexford.
Fears that Wexford General Hospital is being downgraded; Traffic congestion at New Ross; Need to improve road access to Rosslare Europort; Loss of farm income following closure of Carlow Sugar Factory; Crime, especially robberies and break-ins in rural areas.
