France and Russia, the two security council members who have resisted Anglo-American moves for war with Iraq, have significantly modified their attitude in the past few days and seem to have accepted the probability of a conflict early next year.
France, which persuaded the US to seek UN approval before trying to overthrow Saddam Hussein, has postponed a refit for the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which could sail from Toulon to the Gulf in late January.
In the meantime, after a big oil contract was cancelled, Russia has praised as "very balanced" UN weapons inspectors' reports that may provide an excuse for war and no longer insists that the conflict can be settled only by diplomacy.
Both countries appear to be nervous about the economic consequences if the US and Britain go it alone and then do a deal on oil reserves with a new regime.
Paris and Moscow are impatient to profit from long-standing drilling contracts that have been held up by UN sanctions. The French Foreign Minister, Ms Dominique de Villepin, said last week that a "flagrant violation" by Iraq of the latest UN resolution had not yet been proved.
However, President Jacques Chirac is coming under increasing pressure from business and military leaders to move closer to Mr Bush's view that Saddam Hussein has broken his promises to destroy arms stocks.
Because Mr Chirac is head of the defence forces, orders to prepare for French participation in a war depend on the president, who recently berated British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair for being too close to US policy.
So far, a direct command for mobilisation has not yet been received, but the army, navy and air force have been told to review their capabilities.On the Russian side, a marked hardening of attitudes by Moscow in the past two weeks is believed to have contributed to an Iraqi decision to cancel a $3.7 billion drilling contract with a Moscow company. A hardening of the Kremlin's line has become evident in recent weeks. Russia's UN envoy in New York said at the weekend that the "threat of war still existed". - (Guardian Service)