RUSSIA: Despite Kremlin assertions of al-Qaeda involvement, western security officials and experts say it is homegrown Chechen militancy that is driving a wave of attacks inside Russia.
The seizure of children and adults as hostages at a school in Russia's north Caucasus did not resemble a classic al-Qaeda operation, although it did fit a long pattern of Chechen rebel attacks on targets such as hospitals.
More imitative of al-Qaeda's style was the simultaneous downing of two airliners last week, apparently blown up in mid-air by suicide bombers who smuggled explosives on board.
"Two civilian aircraft were brought down by terrorist organisations with links to al-Qaeda," President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday, noting that a group claiming ties to Osama bin Laden's network had claimed responsibility.
The same group, the Islambouli Brigades - named after the assassin of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat - also claimed an attack by a female suicide bomber that killed 10 people and injured 51 at a central Moscow metro station on Tuesday.
But a European security source said the claims, posted in Arabic on an Islamist website, could not be taken as authentic.
In particular, the group's statement that there were five attackers aboard each plane was seen as fanciful because the evidence suggested a single female bomber in each case.
The source said there was little evidence of current operational links between Chechen rebels and al-Qaeda, beyond the fact that many of the separatist fighters had trained at one time in bin Laden's camps in Afghanistan. "Up to this point, the Chechen rebels have concentrated entirely on Russian targets and never made al Qaeda's goals their own. We characterise it still as domestic terrorism," the source said.
Moscow, by contrast, has long insisted that its struggle to crush the separatists is part of the wider war on international terrorism, and has used this as an argument to deflect criticism of its uncompromising tactics.
Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov told reporters earlier this year that operational and financial links between Chechen rebels and al-Qaeda had long ago been proven, and Moscow would "calmly and systematically" destroy the separatists.
He said foreign fighters, particularly Turks, were still active in Chechnya and Russian "spetsnaz" commandos were killing several a month.
Security analysts contacted by Reuters noted that Chechen militants and al-Qaeda - which grew out of the 1980s mujahideen resistance to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan - were united by Islamist ideology and common hatred of Moscow.
Chechnya features sometimes in statements issued by bin Laden.
But they were generally cautious about the extent of al-Qaeda involvement in the latest attacks.
"I certainly would not rule out that there was some component of al-Qaeda support. But I think for Putin to suggest that this is al-Qaeda proper operating on their doorstep is overstating the case," said Mr David Claridge, of Janusian Security Risk Management in London.
The school siege, in which attackers were threatening to kill 50 children for each of their own fighters killed, was seen as a purely Chechen operation.
"The attack on the school today has all the hallmarks of [Chechen warlord] Shamil Basayev," said Col Nick Pratt, now retired from US army and director of security studies at the Marshall Centre in Germany.
Mr Nihat Ali Ozcan, an independent security analyst in Turkey, said the targeting of children was untypical for Islamist militants outside Chechnya.
"In Chechen culture women and children are easily and often used or targeted, but other radical Islamists tend to try and avoid targeting them," he said.
- (Reuters)