Scotland set to vote Yes but Wales uncertain

Scottish voters seem set to claim their first parliament in almost 300 years, with a decisive "Yes, Yes" vote in today's historic…

Scottish voters seem set to claim their first parliament in almost 300 years, with a decisive "Yes, Yes" vote in today's historic referendum. But as the Scottish people went to the polls, the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, was battling to avert defeat in next Thursday's referendum on the creation of a Welsh Assembly.

As the Scottish campaign drew to a close, jubilant devolutionists predicted a high turnout marking "the beginning of a better future for Scotland".

The average of two final opinion polls suggested 62 per cent backing for a Scottish parliament, with only 22 per cent determined to vote against - with a narrower but clear majority saying "Yes" to the second referendum question on whether the parliament should have tax-varying powers.

That polling evidence was dismissed by Mr Michael Ancram, the Conservative Party's constitutional affairs spokesman, who said the answers of people questioned owed more to "political correctness" than actual voting intentions.

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Some Tory strategists last night maintained, despite the evidence to the contrary, that a "Yes, No" result could yet emerge.

Some cynics - inside the Labour Party and elsewhere - fancy such an outcome might be greeted with private relief in Downing Street. But Mr Blair was pulling out all the stops to secure decisive backing for his Scottish plan - knowing that an emphatic "Yes, Yes" could give crucial momentum to his campaign in Wales next week.

The government is haunted by the knowledge that the Welsh people rejected devolution by a four to one margin in 1979. And the latest ICM poll suggests the result of next Thursday's referendum in Wales is "too close to call." The poll shows 37 per cent backing the plan, 36 per cent against, and 27 per cent as yet undecided.

In his first intervention in the referendum campaign the former prime minister, Mr John Major, said Scots might "cheer" a "Yes, Yes" result today - but predicted they would "weep" further down the road.

Speaking to the BBC, he said: "I understand the pride and independence of a nation of genius like Scotland saying, `We can run our own affairs.' I understand that and I very strongly sympathise."

But, Mr Major added, "what I say is that you must realise . . . with that menu comes a price, and the price is higher taxation and, I believe, a lower quality of life, lower investment and lower jobs."