SDLP and UUP have 60% of Assembly support

The main unionist and nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, have the support of 60 per …

The main unionist and nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, have the support of 60 per cent of the electorate for the Assembly elections, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI poll.

The poll indicates support of 33 per cent for the UUP at this stage, with 27 per cent backing the SDLP.

The Democratic Unionist Party, which opposed the Belfast Agreement, has 13 per cent - close to the level of support it received in last year's Westminster election. However, surveys tend to underestimate the DUP performance at the ballot box.

The UK Unionist party, which also opposed the agreement, has 3 per cent support.

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The poll shows Sinn Fein with 8 per cent support, and the Alliance party with 10 per cent.

The survey suggests that at this early stage in the campaign parties favouring the agreement have 82 per cent of public support, while anti-agreement parties have 16 per cent, with "others" on two per cent.

The high level of undecided, at 28 per cent of those surveyed, indicates there may be a lower turnout for the Assembly poll on June 25th than for the referendum on the Belfast Agreement.

The core support for the various parties is as follows (net figures after excluding the undecided are in brackets): UUP 23 (33); SDLP 20 (27); DUP 10 (13); Alliance 7 (10); Sinn Fein 6 (8); UK Unionist Party 2 (3); Labour 1 (2); PUP 1 (1); Women's Coalition 1 (1); Others 1 (2); Undecided 28 (-).

If the election results reflect these figures, the UUP would have its highest level of support since 1992 and the SDLP would be close to its best ever figure of 28.9 per cent, achieved in the European elections of 1994.

The poll was directed for The Irish Times by MRBI Ltd and conducted by the Harris Research Centre. A total of 1,005 people throughout the 18 constituencies of Northern Ireland were interviewed by telephone on Monday and Tuesday. The margin of error is 3 per cent.

In terms of gathering second-preference votes, the poll shows Alliance getting 15 per cent net and UUP 13 per cent. Others score as follows: SDLP 8; DUP 6; SF 5; UKUP 3; Progressive Unionist Party 2; Women's Coalition 2; Other 2.

Among UUP supporters, 20 per cent said they would give second-preference votes to Alliance, 16 per cent to the DUP and 10 per cent to the SDLP. Among SDLP voters, 23 per cent gave Alliance as their next choice, 19 per cent gave Sinn Fein as their next choice, and 8 per cent indicated UUP.

When asked what they considered to be the most important issues facing the new Assembly, 28 per cent listed the decommissioning of paramilitary weapons and the same percentage mentioned peace.

The release of prisoners was rated one of the most important issues by 14 per cent, with UUP and Sinn Fein voters being equally concerned, from their different perspectives, at 19 per cent.

A total of 49 per cent felt decommissioning should begin right away, with 11 per cent believing it should take place before parties took seats on the Assembly executive, 27 per cent "when the other reforms begin" and 12 per cent having no opinion.

There was a wide discrepancy between unionists and nationalists on the timing of any weapons handover. A total of 61 per cent of Ulster Unionists and 77 per cent of DUP voters supported immediate decommissioning, compared with 28 per cent from the SDLP and 18 per cent from Sinn Fein.

With almost three weeks to go to polling day on June 25th, there may be a repeat of the pattern whereby support for the pro-agreement forces showed a considerable dip, which then had to be arrested in the closing stages of the campaign.