CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: Battle will be for constituency's fifth seat with Fianna Fáil under pressure from Green candidate, writes Dick Hogan
Nothing is more likely to concentrate a party's mind than a newspaper poll telling it that one of its sitting TDs is about to lose her seat. So when the Evening Echo carried a banner headline recently proclaiming that Deirdre Clune was in danger of doing just that in Cork South Central, Fine Gael decided to do something.
According to the MRBI poll, Clune's first-preference showing was an abysmal 6 per cent, three percentage points behind the Green Party's Mr Dan Boyle and only one better than Ms Kathy Sinnott, the Independent candidate fighting for the rights of the disabled, who at that stage, hadn't even declared her intention to stand.
With her running mate, Mr Simon Coveney, guaranteed a seat and probably more than a quota, a tightly orchestrated vote management strategy was called for. It was decided that in certain parts of the constituency, Mr Coveney would not campaign at all, giving Ms Clune a clear run and that he would actively seek transfers in her favour.
The party leader then arrived in Monkstown, close to where the first hazardous waste incinerator in the State may be built, and announced Fine Gael's new policy, opposing incineration. That it was diametrically opposed to existing party policy, drawn up by the former leader, Mr John Bruton, was neither here nor there.
While the fifth seat in South Central will undoubtedly be hard won, only a foolhardy punter would bet against Ms Clune now. She comes from a political family, has her father Peter Barry's support, and her campaign has been galvanised by that poll.
Fine Gael is good at vote management and if it works well here, Ms Clune will retain her seat.
Attention then turns to Fianna Fáil. Batt O'Keeffe scored 11 per cent in the same poll. His seat must be taken as safe. The Minister for Health, Mr Martin, is on target for a huge personal vote (he will top the poll, all sides agree). That leaves John Dennehy's seat, which is where the pundits predict Fianna Fáil is most vulnerable. Mr Dan Boyle, Labour's Mr Brendan Ryan, Kathy Sinnott, and others, are targeting this seat, but they may be disappointed.
If he is ever to be elected, this is Mr Boyle's time. Consistently a hard worker at local level and an articulate spokesman for his party, he has laid the groundwork and considers this his best ever opportunity. Mr Ryan, following in the footsteps of Toddy O'Sullivan, says the poll was taken at a time when his profile was not high in the constituency, and since then he has made huge inroads.
Ms Sinnott, despite her 5 per cent showing in the poll, is unlikely to be in the reckoning in subsequent counts. Neither are Sinn Fein's Mr Tom Hanlon or the two other Independents, Mr Con O'Connell and Mr Ted Neville.
But little has been heard from Mr John Dennehy. That's because he is too busy knocking on doors and courting his solid support in the constituency. It should be remembered that Fianna Fail, too, are no slouches when it comes to vote management. It will be no surprise if Mr Dennehy retains his seat and if he doesn't, Mr Boyle is likely to be the new TD.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 2. No change.