Mr Michael Noonan would be the first choice of voters to lead the Fine Gael party in the event of Mr John Bruton's tenure being ended, according to a secret opinion poll by MRBI for a small group of Fine Gael supporters.
The national poll, conducted during June's Tipperary South by-election campaign as the party faced the prospect of a leadership crisis, gave Mr Noonan the support of 44 per cent of voters.
Mr Ivan Yates received 30 per cent, and the third named candidate, Mr Alan Shatter, was favoured by 18 per cent. Some 3 per cent said none of the above, and 8 per cent did not know. These were the only three names put to voters.
The question posed was: "In the event of a change of leadership in Fine Gael, which one of the following would be your first choice as leader of Fine Gael?".
The poll also showed that an alliance involving Fine Gael, Labour and other smaller parties would receive considerably more support if Mr Bruton were replaced as Fine Gael leader.
The Irish Times has learned that the poll was privately commissioned by an individual and backed by a small group of party supporters who wanted to see Mr Bruton ousted.
It was specifically designed to test support for one of the three named candidates, not Mr Noonan. It was a standard MRBI opinion poll conducted among 1,000 voters in all constituencies, and it asked the usual questions about current party support and the standing of party leaders.
It is understood that the poll was to be used to drum up support for a challenge within the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party last June. That opportunity passed, however, when Senator Tom Hayes performed well and it was decided to keep the poll secret.
The poll tested support for an alternative government alliance of parties involving Fine Gael, Labour and possibly other smaller parties. Some 42 per cent said they would vote for such an alliance led by Mr Bruton, with 41 per cent against and 18 per cent expressing no opinion.
However, a greater number - 47 per cent - said they would support the same alliance if Fine Gael were no longer led by Mr Bruton. Some 31 per cent said they would not, with 23 per cent expressing no opinion.