Secular parties expected to gain in Iraqi elections

More than 14,460 candidates are standing in provincial polls in Iraq today, writes Michael Jansen

More than 14,460 candidates are standing in provincial polls in Iraq today, writes Michael Jansen

IRAQI VOTERS go to the polls today in provincial council elections, the second such poll since the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. More than 14,460 candidates are standing as independents or party nominees for 440 seats.

Each council has been allocated 25 seats plus one seat for every 200,000 people in a province. Baghdad, the largest, is set to have 57 councillors while the average for the other provinces is 30. Some 17 million Iraqis over the age of 18 are eligible to cast ballots in 42,000 polling stations.

Although parties in power have a considerable advantage in terms of organisation and patronage, 10,000 new candidates and parties are challenging incumbents. Some of the newcomers belong to Sunni tribal “Awakening Councils” which fought against al-Qaeda alongside US forces.

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The Sunnis are seeking to oust the Kurdish bloc and the Shia Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) which won majorities in Sunni-majority provinces after Sunnis boycotted the 2005 provincial poll.

Vigorous contests are also taking place in the Shia-dominated south where the Dawa party of prime minister Nuri al-Maliki is standing against the SIIC, followers of dissident cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Fadhilla party, a Sadrist offshoot. The largest number of independents are running in Baghdad where they feel confident they can compete with office holders who have failed to deliver voters’ demands.

Security has improved considerably since 2005 when voters cast ballots for party and coalition lists rather than candidates whose names were often not revealed for fear of assassination. Following that vote, the winning parties, mainly sectarian or ethnic, allocated seats.

While at least six have been murdered during the current campaign, posters bearing candidates’ images were displayed on buildings and blast walls and many canvassed openly. Contests have been particularly violent in the northern and eastern Nineveh and Diyala provinces where Kurds and Shias are competing with Arab and Sunni candidates representing majorities who resent four years of rule by Kurdish and Shia politicians.

The 4,000 women candidates have faced serious discrimination, abuse, and threats from Muslim extremists who seek to relegate women to the home.

Since there are no reserved seats for women – there is a 25 per cent quota in the national parliament – they will have difficulty getting substantial representation because some parties have not met the requirement that one woman should be fielded for every three men on a slate.

Analysts suggest Iraqi secular parties may benefit from disillusionment with the communal model installed by the US in 2003 following the ousting of the secular Baathist government. The main reason for the shift away from communal parties is rejection of self-identification as Shias, Sunnis or Christians as a consequence of sectarian violence and communal cleansing in 2006-2007.

This change has compelled some candidates to focus on the lack of jobs, potable water, electricity, housing and public services instead of relying on communal solidarity.

Elections are not being held in the three provinces that comprise the Kurdish region or the disputed Tamim province. There, Kurds are vying for control of the capital Kirkuk and its oil fields with Arabs and Turkomen.

When the Iraqi parliament approved the electoral law last summer, paving the way for provincial polls in 15 out of the 18 provinces, president Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, and vice president Adel Abdel Mahdi, of the SIIC, vetoed the measure. This forced parliament to defer the election in Tamim and in Kurdish provinces.

Iraqis will also vote in July in a referendum on an agreement governing the presence of US troops and in a national parliamentary election in December.