Security sources in the North have reported what they see as an inexorable growth in the threat from dissident republicanism.
Anti-Belfast Agreement republicans appear to have established themselves in a number of republican heartlands and are expanding their operations. And according to some security sources, it is only a matter of time before the group responsible for the Omagh bombing in August 1998 strikes again.
The dissident campaign is expanding on a number of fronts. In recent weeks, incendiary bombs were planted in shops in Cos Tyrone and Armagh. The RUC blamed the dissidents for firebombs planted in two clothes shops in Co Tyrone. One, in a store in Scotch Street, Dungannon, was defused by the British army's explosive ordnance officers. The other, in a shop in William Street in Cookstown, partly exploded.
Days earlier, two similar finds in Armagh and Belfast led police to urge shopkeepers to be on their guard for firebombs. On Saturday, another unexploded firebomb was found in a soft furnishings store in Armagh. A few hours later, a similar device was found at Millets camping shop in Belfast.
Security sources said the devices were similar to the early versions of the Provisional IRA's incendiary bombs which caused hundreds of millions of pounds worth of damage to retail property during the Troubles.
However, the most immediate threat to life is reported to come from a separate republican group based in the south Armagh-north Louth area who have allegedly been perfecting a home-made mortar system for attacking police and military bases in the North.
Already this year, the "Real IRA" has launched two mortar attacks, on security bases near Glassdrummond, in south Armagh and Roslea, Co Fermanagh.
On April 12th, two dissident republicans from the Fermanagh/Cavan area fired a mortar at Roslea RUC barracks. The home-made device was launched from a stolen Co Louth-registered car.
Although it fell well short of the station, security force sources confirmed that a degree of sophistication in its manufacture gave cause for concern.
The device and another later fired at Glassdrummond barracks lacked important elements. Security sources indicated the dissidents were subsequently joined by a leading former Provisional IRA mortar-maker who supplied them with the necessary know-how to complete the device.
The result appears to have been the device which exploded at the Armagh RUC barracks.
The bomb at the British army base at Magilligan Strand yesterday is the third such attack in the northwest this year. On February 25th, a large bomb, capable of destroying several buildings, was planted near a dormitory where soldiers were sleeping in Shackleton Barracks in Limavady. However, the bombers woke up a sergeant major and they ran off before priming the bomb.
On April 6th, Ebrington army barracks in Derry's Waterside was attacked and a number of buildings close to the perimeter damaged by a small bomb. Again, no one was injured.