Serious loyalist violence could jeopardise any further moves on IRA decommissioning. Destroying or surrendering weapons at a time when workingclass Catholic areas are seen as under threat from loyalist attack would also be highly unpopular among the republican constituency.
Loyalists have used sectarian violence in the past to successfully undermine negotiations between the British government and representatives of the IRA. They did so in 1972 and 1975 when the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) wrecked IRA ceasefires by stepping up their campaign of sectarian assassination.
At the outset of the cease fires/ peace process, republican sources in Belfast were quoted as saying that a defence clause might be needed in any ceasefire arrangements, which would allow the IRA to strike back at loyalist paramilitaries.
Decommissioning per se is also controversial within the IRA.
According to senior Garda sources, it is highly unlikely that the IRA will willingly give up its weapons or allow the dumps to be permanently sealed, such as filling them over with concrete.
Most importantly, the IRA is afraid of any further splits in its organisation on the issue. It lost a small but significant number of figures to the "Real IRA" in 1997 over the decommissioning issue.
The then IRA quartermaster left to form the "Real IRA", which went on to carry out the Omagh bombing on August 15th, 1998. While the dissidents have not grown in strength it is felt likely that others would leave the Provisional IRA if it moved any further on decommissioning.
The man who replaced the quartermaster is from Co Cavan and is said to be a very hardline republican who would not be well disposed to any move which could be construed as the surrender of weapons.
Many of the Provisionals have drifted off into other activities in both legal and illicit occupations. Those who are engaged in smuggling and other crimes could be seriously threatened by the further growth of a group like the "Real IRA", which is also keen to branch into organised criminal activity to fund itself. The activities of the "Real IRA" have also created a situation where the RUC Chief Constable has advised that he cannot safely send his officers into places like south Armagh without the cover provided from the observation posts run by the British army.
This military presence is, in turn, used as one of the reasons given for the lack of movement on Provisional IRA decommissioning.
The IRA statement of May 6th last year, containing the offer to "completely and verifiably put IRA arms beyond use", was predicated on agreement being reached on the issues of demilitarisation, policing and the pardoning of IRA fugitives.
While the pardon process has taken place, there appears to have been no agreement on demilitarisation or aspects of policing which are the subject of secret negotiations.
In the meantime, both governments have been advised by their most senior police officers that it is their belief that no significant move on decommissioning is in the offing.