AN ALARMING selection of wild cards, warped allegiances and sensitive local issues will make this campaign an unexpectedly jittery one for candidates in the sprawling Waterford constituency.
A month or so before the election was called, the outcome here seemed clear-cut enough the four sitting TDs were likely to be returned comfortably.
But since then a range of controversial developments has muddied the waters, and there will now be a real battle for the fourth and final seat.
Thousands of homes in the constituency have lost their multi-channel service because of the legal push against the television deflector groups. The widespread anger over this will direct substantial support to the single-issue deflector candidate, Dermot Kirwan (30), enough to seriously discommode the major party candidates, if not to put him in the running for a Dail seat.
Just as destablising an issue will be the anger over what is perceived as the
Government's reneging on the commitment made to Waterford's recently upgraded Institute of Technology.
The parents of thousands of students now in the middle of their exams will be seeking ways to demonstrate their disgust at the apparent intention to placate unrest in Cork and elsewhere by upgrading all RTCs; thus diluting, it is claimed, WIT's hard-won new status.
Opposition candidates are certain to capitalise on this concern. The alarm in WIT itself is being echoed in heavyweight local bodies such as the Chamber of Commerce and Waterford Corporation.
Austin Deasy's local popularity as the sitting Fine Gael TD had him tipped to head the poll, but he and Minister of State for Health, Brian O'Shea of Labour, could suffer from the WIT backlash.
Fianna Fail's decision to run three candidates is an interesting strategic ploy which could well pay off when the late transfers come into play. Sitting TDs, Brendan Kenneally and Martin Cullen, have solid support bases in Waterford city. Their party running mate, Ollie Wilkinson, a farmer in the west of the county, could produce a real surprise, according to reports from there.
If some left-wing support switches from Brian O'Shea - in spite of frequent health fund hand-outs to the constituency in recent weeks - it could be divided between the Workers' Party man, Michael Martin O'Regan, and the Socialist Workers' Party candidate, Jimmy Kelly.
Both FG and FF will be nervously marking the performance of the PD candidate, Katherine Bulbulia, who has been constructing a high-profile campaign for months, aided by numerous flying visits to the constituency by her party leader, Mary Harney.
The experienced former senator hopes to be well in contention to take the fourth seat for the PDs and is a good each-way bet.
But if she fails, her votes might transfer to the second FG candidate, former Waterford mayor, Maurice Cummins, if he remains in the race at that stage.
The Green candidate, Brendan McCann, is a lecturer at WIT and may harness support on the college issue.
But in spite of the unrest factors, the number-crunching reality makes it difficult to anticipate any change in the final disposition of seats from the present: two FF, one FG, one Labour.