Setting a date

The most important date on the political calendar at the moment is June 30th - the day the Dail goes into a lengthy recess

The most important date on the political calendar at the moment is June 30th - the day the Dail goes into a lengthy recess. TDs will heave a collective sigh of relief that they will be spared a date with electoral destiny - at least until the autumn. Fianna Fail strategists favour June 2001 for the next general election. They figure Tony Blair will have called a general election for then. If so, the FF-ers reckon, Sinn Fein will be too pre-occupied with elections in Northern Ireland to pay as much attention as it would like to the Republic.

A less important factor, though it also features in the strategists' thinking, is that Bertie Ahern's brother Maurice's term as Lord Mayor of Dublin will end in June 2001 and Fianna Fail will have had 12 months' incumbency in the Mansion House.

In December, Charlie McCreevy will introduce a populist Budget - with the tax effects manifesting themselves in people's pockets in April and May.

All this presupposes that events do not overtake the Government. Fianna Fail is more shaken that it cares to admit that a serving Cabinet minister, Micheal Martin, solicited money from the ever-generous Owen O'Callaghan.