POLL WATCH:SEVEN OUT of every eight Americans intending to vote in the presidential election have already decided on their choice of candidate between Barack Obama or John McCain, according to polling figures published yesterday, writes Mark Hennessy
They show that 48 per cent of those certain to vote say they will opt for Democrat Barack Obama, while 40 per cent prefer the Republican, John McCain. Nine per cent say they are leaning towards one candidate, but could still change their mind.
The remaining 3 per cent are either committed to a third party candidate, such as the independent, Ralph Nader, or they remain undecided, according to the figures from Rasmussen polling.
One month ago Obama enjoyed just a two-point gap when a similar survey was carried out, when 41 per cent of those polled said they would support him, while 39 per cent then opted for the Republican. The same survey also claims that Obama now leads by 16 points among women, including a three-point advantage among white women, while McCain has a three-point superiority among men.
Supporting evidence of substantial early voting, half of all African-Americans polled say that they intend to vote early.˜ Some 37 per cent of all Obama supporters and 35 per cent of McCain's have voted early, or intend to do so.
Meanwhile, one of the main television networks, NBC, now believes that Colorado and Virginia will both fall Obama's way on election day, which would guarantee him the presidency, according to its analysis of electoral college votes.
One week before the election, the network believes that Obama leads McCain by 286 to 163 in electoral college votes, up from the 264-163 advantage it accorded the Democrat a week ago.
If Obama wins Colorado and Virginia - two traditional Republican states - it would mean that he would be able to get to the winning 270 majority of electoral college votes even if he lost Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.