The surge in sex crime in recent years has been accompanied by a startling drop in the rate of prosecutions, according to Dr Ian O'Donnell of UCD.
Dr O'Donnell, deputy director of the Institute of Criminology in the Law Faculty, will be addressing the Conference on the Working Group on the Jurisdiction of the Courts on the subject today.
He said the overall level of recorded crime climbed from the late 1960s, reaching a peak in 1983 and fluctuating considerably since then.
However, the trend for sex crime was radically different. It remained low and steady until the early 1990s, then rose relentlessly, with a remarkable surge over the past two years, reaching around 2,000 recorded sexual offences last year.
Garda figures always underestimated the true level of crime because not all offences were reported to it or recorded by it. Victims of sex crimes could still be particularly reluctant to go through with all the processes necessary to bring their attackers to justice.
Dr O'Donnell said the rise in sexual violence had been accompanied by a startling drop in the proportion of cases that led to criminal prosecutions.
In 1950, 85 per cent of sexual offences recorded by the Garda led to proceedings. By 2000 this had dropped to 25 per cent. This decline was much more marked than for other crimes, and was difficult to interpret.
He said it might be that a more selective approach had previously been taken to the recording of complaints, with those unlikely to be pursued not making it into the official record. If so, this raised questions about the quality of the available information and its value in guiding policy and informing public opinion.
There were several reasons for the sharp rise in sex crime in recent years. The first was the increased likelihood that victims would come forward with complaints.
There was evidence that "historic" offences were being reported, particularly where the victims were male. This had coincided with a growing awareness of the prevalence of child sexual abuse and a process of destigmatisation.
The introduction of clearer guidelines and improved methods of recording might be contributing to more comprehensive logging of complaints. If so, this raised the question of how such matters had been handled in previous years. Legislative changes had a role to play also.
Finally, the growth in sex crime could be a consequence of the recent rise in violence across the country and the upswing in alcohol consumption. The nature of recorded sex crime had changed over the years, with rape and sexual assault becoming the dominant types. However, despite the recent rise, the overall rate of rape in this country had remained comparatively low, he said.
The dramatic fall in the prosecution rate was puzzling. Perhaps there were growing delays in initiating proceedings, perpetrators could not be identified, the Garda decided not to charge or the DPP decided not to prosecute.