SF gains pose question of a new IRA ceasefire

"WILL it bring a new ceasefire?" That was the question people were asking each other in the corridors of Belfast City Hall as…

"WILL it bring a new ceasefire?" That was the question people were asking each other in the corridors of Belfast City Hall as Gerry Adams's triumphal cortege swept past, pursued by camera crews and microphones.

"Won't he talk to his constituents?" a young woman from Radio Ulster pleaded. "West Belfast wants to hear from him." The answer, it seemed, was that West Belfast would have to wait while the Sinn Fein leader talked to Japanese television.

As for the question of a ceasefire, the answer is that nobody knows. However, the greatly increased vote for Sinn Fein in areas like West Belfast will strengthen Gerry Adams's hand, not only with the two governments, but also within the republican movement.

It demonstrates that there is a continuing momentum to Sinn Fein's involvement in the political process and may help to persuade the sceptics within the IRA that the "alternative, unarmed strategy" should be given another try.

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At the very least, it will steady the situation. If the IRA is not prepared to reinstate the ceasefire - and the difficulties in the way of this must not be underestimated - then it should make it easier to hold the present limbo of a de facto absence of violence.

That would leave the way open for weeks, if not months, of political theatre - Sinn Fein marching up to the talks, being filmed being excluded, meetings and telephone calls between the two governments to wrestle with the situation, the arrival of the US cavalry in the form of Senator Mitchell and so on. It's not ideal, but it will still be better than a return to the killing fields.

It may even be that, having delivered such a success at the ballot box, Mr Adams will be able to make the case for a ceasefire. The argument for going into talks now, when Sinn Fein's mandate has received such a dramatic endorsement, should be very compelling.

This was, as both governments and many of the candidates said, a single issue election. It was about getting all parties into talks to secure a peaceful settlement. Sinn Fein's election posters bore the message "Vote for peace".

Mr Adams may argue - and will do so if the IRA does not renew its ceasefire - that the size of his party's vote entitles Sinn Fein to a place at the table as of right.

But, quite apart from the view of the British and Irish governments, he must know that many of the people who decided to support his party on this occasion do not share his view of the situation. They are democrats and do not think that talks should be conducted under the threat of violence.

THEY voted tactically because they want to see the fragile peace made secure and know that this is more likely to happen if Sinn Fein is brought firmly into the political process. One young man said to me: "I'm an SDLP voter, but I just thought that if anyone can get the peace back it's Gerry Adams, so it's important to give him the support he needs."

Sinn Fein still has a lot to learn about being generous, or even graceful, in victory. When the West Belfast result was announced, an undulating yell went up from the party's supporters and their strut and swagger around the City Hall was reminiscent of a Kick the Pope band on July 12th.

The campaign in West Belfast was bitter, but it was a pity Gerry Adams didn't take the opportunity to try and heal the breach with the SDLP, whose leader has shown such courage and commitment in the pursuit of an inclusive peace. When this day of triumph is over, Sinn Fein is going to need the SDLP to help rebuild the nationalist consensus.

There were other disappointments at the City Hall yesterday. Billy Hutchinson, one of the bravest new voices to have emerged from the loyalist community, wondered how an election which, they were told, had been designed to help the fringe loyalist parties had done no such thing.

The two small loyalist parties will be brought into the talks on the regional list system, but obviously hoped for a stronger endorsement on their first political outing, and deserved it.

The two main unionist parties fared better. The way the vote panned out meant that both the UUP and the DUP were able to claim victory.

There were bonuses, largely unnoticed in the fight between the main contenders. The success of the Northern Ireland Women's Coalition in winning enough votes for candidates to be elected from the regional list was a real breakthrough.

In an election where the whole emphasis was on tribal loyalties, they challenged voters to break out of the old, narrow trenches and strike out for the high ground. Their voices will be heard at the talks and far beyond them by all the women of Ireland.