As Sinn Féin delegates meet at the RDS this weekend for their annual ardfheis, they will take comfort that, despite the growing public disbelief in their pronouncements, voters still want the establishment parties to do business with them, writes Mark Brennock.
There is an overwhelming public belief that the IRA robbed the Northern Bank of £26.5 million, and that Sinn Féin and the IRA are in effect the same organisation.
We believe by a 2:1 margin that Sinn Féin is unacceptable rather than acceptable as a government party in the Republic.
The party has lost a quarter of its electoral support since October, while disapproval of Gerry Adams's performance as Sinn Féin leader has risen to a record high.
Yet there remains a remark-
able public commitment to the core idea behind the peace process: that negotiations must continue with Sinn Féin until a deal is done in the North and the party is brought into the political process.
The most striking aspect of this poll is the apparently unshakeable public commitment to this strategy, despite all that has happened.
The litany of events contributing to the public disenchantment with Sinn Féin and its leader includes the collapse of the talks in December, the Northern Bank raid, the brutal killing of Robert McCartney, the discovery of a major money-laundering operation and the Sinn Féin campaign for the release of the killers of Det Garda Jerry McCabe. All of these factors have led to a substantial hardening of public attitudes in a short six-week period.
In mid-January fewer than half of voters believed the IRA had robbed the Northern Bank. This was despite the insistence of the Taoiseach, the British prime minister, the PSNI Chief Constable and others that they had done so. Now 64 per cent - almost two-thirds - believe they robbed the bank.
There has been a fall, too, in the number believing Sinn Féin is genuine about its commitment to work towards the end of all paramilitary violence and criminal activity.
Last time 46 per cent believed it was, while 23 per cent thought it was not, with 22 per cent either saying they didn't know or offering no opinion. Now 41 per cent say the party is genuine, 39 per cent that it is not and 20 per cent don't know or have no opinion.
Yet support for the continuation of talks towards a deal with Sinn Féin, even in the absence of a verified ending of IRA activity, remains constant among supporters of all parties, in all age groups, regions and social categories.
The same proportion as six weeks ago - 62 per cent - believes the Irish and British governments should continue such talks.
The drop in actual support for Sinn Féin by two percentage points to 9 per cent since six weeks ago is modest, and within the margin of error.
However, combined with the one-point drop between the poll in October last year and that in January, the party has lost three percentage points, or a quarter of the support it had before the Northern Bank robbery and all the subsequent events.
The fact that at 9 per cent it is still above the 7 per cent it received in the 2002 general election is not a cause for comfort. Opinion polls show that parties tend to put on and lose support slowly, so two consecutive polls showing downward movement is a worry for them.
The dramatic drop in the approval of Mr Gerry Adams's performance as party leader is also a cause for serious concern in Sinn Féin.
Over time, a party with a highly-approved-of leader tends to put on support. In addition, the hitherto positive view of Gerry Adams among non-Sinn Féin voters held out the hope that, over time, the party would begin to attract transfers from these voters.
But approval of Adams has fallen steadily over two polls. In October, 51 per cent said they were satisfied with his performance; now just 30 per cent are. In October, 24 per cent were dissatisfied, while 52 per cent now are.
As disapproval of Mr Adams grew, the number giving no opinion on him has fallen to 18 per cent from 25 per cent in October. This is due almost entirely to the supporters of other parties turning against Gerry Adams.
When the peace process was seen to be making progress, many supporters of mainstream parties, while possibly having little time for Sinn Féin, would have seen Mr Adams as doing a good job in leading his party towards a solely democratic modus operandi.
Events of the past two months have clearly shaken their faith in the Sinn Féin leader.
There is also significant disbelief in the long-term peaceful intent of the IRA, with exactly a third of voters believing a return to the military campaign is likely.
In this context it is unsurprising that 56 per cent now see Sinn Féin as an unsuitable participant in a coalition, with just 28 per cent seeing it as suitable and 16 per cent saying they don't know or having no opinion.
Despite this growing scepticism, and indeed hostility, it seems voters remain convinced that, in the words of a Government adviser in the early days of the peace process, talks without Sinn Féin "would not be worth a penny candle".