Political Analysis: Yesterday has brought closer the day when Sinn Féin will sit in government in the Republic, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern yesterday highlighted Sinn Féin's policy on Europe and the economy as obstacles to their participation in government.
It was a far cry from the years of insisting that that party was beyond the Pale because it had a private army, involved in violence and criminality.
Fine Gael and Labour yesterday insisted that Sinn Féin still had a long way to go to establish their democratic credentials and be seen as acceptable members of a coalition government in the Republic.
But Bertie Ahern said the obstacle of IRA violence and weapons had effectively been removed.
Of course, the Government would watch closely for what the Independent Monitoring Commission said about whether IRA criminality had ended, he said, but "the fact is in relation to the Provisional IRA . . . the gun of the IRA is out of Irish politics".
Now there were other obstacles, he said. "I have many other difficulties with Sinn Féin that have nothing to do with this issue," he said. "I am a pro-European. Sinn Féin are opposed to that.
"How could you have a minister going to the agricultural council who believes there shouldn't be an agricultural council, or an industry council? They are opposed to most of the other things I do. But they are political issues," he said.
Indeed they are and none of them seem insurmountable. In October last year, Dermot Ahern caused a stir by asserting that it was "only a matter of time" before Sinn Féin was in government in the Republic".
Mary Hanafin was out within a couple of days saying that it wasn't just weapons and criminality that were the problem, but Sinn Féin's economic policy too. Now that Fianna Fáil sees "weapons and criminality" as out of the way, the policy issues do not appear entirely insurmountable.
Spokesmen for both the Fine Gael and Labour leaders yesterday made clear that neither party was yet convinced that the weapons and criminality issue was over.
A spokesman for Enda Kenny said: "We need to see a clear break with any links to criminality. Events such as the Northern Bank raid, the McCartney murder and the Joe Rafferty murder all suggest that these links are still in place."
Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte said something remarkably similar through a spokesman. "I do not believe that the situation will arise nor do I envisage any circumstances in which the Labour Party would go into government with Sinn Féin after the next election.
"Despite the long overdue but very welcome development in regard to decommissioning, Sinn Féin has still a long way to go to establish their full democratic bona fides. The memories of the Northern Bank robbery, the murder of Robert McCartney and the reaction of Sinn Féin to the murder of Joseph Rafferty are all too recent."
There are many factors which will determine if and when Sinn Féin becomes acceptable to the larger parties as a potential coalition partner. For Fianna Fáil, these may now concern only policy, while Fine Gael and Labour also require more proof of that party's democratic commitment.
A crucial factor is public opinion. And if nothing happens to question the finality of yesterday's announcement, and the Independent Monitoring Commission reports shortly that IRA paramilitary and criminal activity has ended, Irish public opinion may change quickly.
In June 2001, an Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll found a majority of voters would actually accept Sinn Féin as part of the next government. Some 47 per cent would find the party's involvement acceptable, 41 per cent would not, and 12 per cent were undecided.
Sinn Féin participation in a coalition was seen as acceptable among supporters of all parties except Fine Gael, where 33 per cent of supporters said they would accept it, with 57 per cent against, and 10 per cent undecided.
However, last January in the wake of the Northern Bank robbery the tide had turned somewhat, with a poll finding the public evenly divided on whether Sinn Féin would be an acceptable partner in a coalition government.
Some 39 per cent said the party would be acceptable, 39 per cent that it would not, 18 per cent don't know and 4 per cent have no opinion. Among supporters of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Green Party and the PDs, a greater number would have found it unacceptable.
By March, after the publicity surrounding the McCartney killing, opinion had further hardened against the possibility of Sinn Féin serving in government in the Republic. Just 28 per cent believed Sinn Féin would be an acceptable government party, 56 per cent that it would be unacceptable, while 16 per cent didn't know or had no opinion.
Yesterday's events are bound to have turned the tide of public opinion back again. But with an estimated 18 months to go before the next general election, it may be too much to expect the major parties - even Fianna Fáil - to be ready to accept Sinn Féin ministers in the Republic so soon. The fear that violent or criminal incidents would take place and be linked to the IRA or its members would cause considerable instability.
It may also be too much also to expect Sinn Féin - which is aiming for significant electoral gains in the Republic over the next decade - to be ready to accept the major compromises that would come with being a minority partner in a coalition government.
The party has hovered around 10 per cent in opinion polls over the last two years, with most analysts believing that the failure to put weapons beyond use and continued criminal acts were preventing a further rise.
The party will now be hoping, and the other main parties fearing, that yesterday's events will give Sinn Féin electoral standing a further substantial boost.