SF seeks gains on both sides of Border

Analysis: Powersharing in the North may only be weeks away for Sinn Féin, and the party believes that being in government in…

Analysis:Powersharing in the North may only be weeks away for Sinn Féin, and the party believes that being in government in the Republic cannot be far behind, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent.

Distracted by the Assembly elections in Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin's weekend ardfheis had the distinct air of a party going through the motions as it waits for the results.

The next few weeks will be crucial, both for the party's electoral fortunes in Northern Ireland and its prospects of sharing the two top political jobs in Stormont with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Both the DUP and Sinn Féin have gone out of their way in recent weeks to avoid picking fights with each other and have been happy to concentrate on issues irritating the public, notably water charges.

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Sensing the political climate, Sinn Féin leaders are quietly convinced that the DUP's Rev Ian Paisley will make the leap, unthinkable not long ago, before the Assembly meets at the end of March.

So far, it has put more emphasis on the proximity of power than on winning extra seats, although it has five targets: Strangford, Lagan Valley, West Tyrone, Fermanagh-South Tyrone and West Belfast.

Emphasising the inevitability of a deal is also good politics among nationalists and republicans, as it could help to copperfasten votes taken from the SDLP in the past, votes that will be vital for any of those gains to be realised.

The retention of votes of middle-class, one-time SDLP supporters considering changing loyalties may be necessary since, though relatively silent, more than a few republicans have genuine difficulties with the policing moves. They will not vote against the party in any significant way, notwithstanding the presence of Republican Sinn Féin candidates and others like Gerry McGeough, but they may stay at home.

During the ardfheis, a desultory attempt was made by a few Sinn Féin delegates to reopen the party's decision in January to support the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) and the legal system there.

However, the lack of any real prospect of an internal revolt was obvious from the start of the ardfheis, when Gerry Kelly firmly slapped down the arguments behind such calls.

The decision, he said, had been "comprehensively" supported by January's special ardfheis and change now would be "foolhardy" and would let the DUP "off the hook" with the prize so close at hand.

The differences between this campaign and previous Assembly elections are best highlighted by the lack of DUP reaction to Fermanagh-South Tyrone MP, Michelle Gildernew.

Last week, she said she would not tell police about arms possessed by dissident republicans, a comment that in any past campaign would have had Paisley's followers fulminating.

There is no doubt, however, that the question put to Gildernew could be - and undoubtedly will be - legitimately put to any of Sinn Féin's candidates in the upcoming Dáil elections.

While the weeks ahead will have much to say about Sinn Féin's fortunes in Northern Ireland, they will, equally, be influential in setting the landscape for the party's battle south of the Border.

In his speech on Saturday evening, Adams said that there should "be no doubt" about Sinn Féin's determination to be in power in the Republic: and quickly, not just some day.

Sinn Féin had a "historic mission", he said, with the distinct lack of modesty typical of the party at such moments, to "bring about a truly national republic and a truly national government".

However, he told delegates and the outside audience watching in the RDS in Ballsbridge at the weekend, "we are not prepared to wait until then to tackle the many issues which bear down upon the people of Ireland".

Although no hard and fast views have been made, the other political parties in the Republic up to now believed that Sinn Féin would prefer not to be in government immediately.

Regardless of whether Adams is being entirely straight on this point, he had little choice but to labour the point about Sinn Féin's desire for power now, given the dynamics forming in the general election campaign.

With two alternative alliances already on the starting blocks, voters may be somewhat reluctant to support a party that would firmly rule itself out of participation in government in advance.

However, other voters, alarmed by the possibility of Sinn Féin in ministerial office in Dublin, may revise their intentions and use their preferences actively to scupper the party's ambitions.

Having won five seats in the Dáil in the last election, Sinn Féin quietly spoke two years or so ago about winning 16 seats, although its ambitions have been reined in significantly since then.

Nevertheless, Sinn Féin is still confident that it will win extra seats and will particularly bank on Dublin MEP Mary Lou McDonald winning in Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's base in Dublin Central.

Her prospects were brighter a few months back than they are now, given one negative constituency poll and little evidence on the ground that she has made significant inroads.

However, her campaign profile will be helped by the prominence that she is likely to enjoy over coming weeks on Northern issues, even though her prominence is not reflective of her influence in the talks themselves.

In Waterford, David Cullinane has prospects, judging by the vote he took within the constituency's borders in the 2004 European Parliament elections - particularly if the vote of Fianna Fáil's Martin Cullen is down in the city.

In Donegal South West, Pearse Doherty remains strong, although Padraic MacLochlainn faces a tough battle in Donegal North East, given the level of competition within Fianna Fáil and between current and former Fine Gaelers.