MIDDLE EAST: The Israeli prime minister's risky decision to bolt from the rightist Likud dramatically redraws Israel's political landscape, writes Nuala Haughey in Jerusalem
There is a story about how the young Ariel Sharon defied death during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war that speaks volumes about the grit of the leader who has just decided to take the radical step of quitting his ruling party to forge a new one.
In 1948, the man who was to become prime minister was a 20-year-old platoon commander whose soldiers were almost all wiped out by enemy fire during an assault on the Latrun hill outside Jerusalem. Bleeding heavily from a stomach wound, he was barely able to crawl towards a ditch where he forced himself to imbibe a nasty but life-saving infusion of mud mingled with blood of his dead fellow soldiers.
Yesterday the tough 77-year-old ex-general announced he had taken a difficult decision which has propelled him into the political battle of his long career. Here is a popular incumbent prime minister voluntarily quitting the safe home of a ruling party that he founded to contest an early general election at the helm of a centrist force, the newly minted National Responsibility Party. To say it is a risky and unprecedented move that dramatically redraws Israel's political landscape does not sum it up, and commentators here have scrambled for words to convey the magnitude of Sharon's decision. Tsunami, earthquake, seismic shift, big bang are among the favourites.
While the decision to bolt from the rightist Likud could not have been made easily, Sharon clearly felt it was the best of all options. Since his unilateral move to evacuate Gaza settlements last summer, Sharon has fought tooth and nail with self-styled rebels within his party, ideologues who strongly opposed his move to cede the occupied territory to the Palestinians.
He was forced to co-opt the quiescent Labor Party to his ruling coalition to muster the parliamentary support to ram through his Gaza "disengagement" plan in the teeth of such bitter internal opposition.
The recent surprise election of Amir Peretz to lead that party, and to pull it out of the coalition, was the catalyst, robbing Sharon of an assured parliamentary majority.
Sharon could have decided to stay on to fight, and probably win, the forthcoming elections at the helm of his disgruntled and riven party.
If successful, it would have been a pyrrhic victory, as he would have struggled to implement his plan to evacuate more isolated West Bank settlements while consolidating Israel's hold on larger settlements there and in annexed East Jerusalem. This would have meant first seeing off his arch rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a pre-election Likud leadership contest, which Sharon was not guaranteed to win.
And so he chose the third option, despite the risks, of disengaging from the Likud Party he founded in 1973. Sharon's supporters believe his new party can gain 30 seats in the 120-member parliament (10 less than Likud currently holds) which would probably be sufficient to make it the majority partner in a future coalition.
They claim he will attract up to 16 moderate Likud members to his fold, as well as at least one Labor lawmaker. Sharon's dramatic move also paves the way for a battle for the leadership of what remains of Likud, with the hard-line Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the rebels, so far emerging as the firm favourite in a strong field.
Sharon's electoral strength lies in the momentum his new party will generate, as well as his genuine popularity among many Israelis who see him as a strong leader offering continuity and security. If successful, his officials say he would remain committed to the internationally endorsed roadmap for peace.
In the meantime, he is likely to forge ahead with policies aimed at tightening Israel's grip on large West Bank settlements while negotiations on a final peace settlement remain in abeyance.
If elected to head the Likud rump, Netanyahu will appeal to right-wing voters who opposed Sharon's Gaza pull-out, painting his arch rival and former champion of the settlement enterprise as a man gone soft in old age.
Peretz, the Moroccan-born firebrand trade unionist, will be attractive to left-wing voters with his dovish take on peace with the Palestinians, as well as new immigrants and other underprivileged citizens, drawn by his pledges to close the yawning social gap.
Whatever the composition of the next coalition government, Israel is heading for a vigorous three-way battle for the centre vote - and the campaigning has started.