MIDDLE EAST: Election worries and the Iraqi crisis will shape Israel's response to yesterday's bombing, writes Peter Hirschberg
Israeli Prime Minister Mr Ariel Sharon will have been weighing two key, possibly conflicting, factors when he met senior ministers last night to discuss his government's response to the dual suicide bombing in Tel Aviv yesterday: the country's general election on January 28th and a possible US strike against Iraq.
After four Israelis were killed in an attack by two Palestinian gunmen at a settlement 10 days ago, Mr Sharon reportedly ordered the army to step up targeted assassinations of senior Palestinian militants. But because of the proximity of the election, the fact that yesterday's attack was in the heart of Tel Aviv, and the high death toll - at least 22 people were killed - the Prime Minister might consider more wide-ranging action.
With the elections so close, Mr Sharon does not want to be portrayed by Israel's far-right as being soft on the Palestinians. In the immediate aftermath of the attack, Mr Effi Eitam, the leader of the hawkish National Religious Party, last night called on the government to expel Palestinian Authority President, Mr Yasser Arafat, whom he called the "engine of terror." In fact, with the centre-left Labour Party now out of the government, those who support expelling the Palestinian leader from the West Bank are for the first time in the majority in the inner security cabinet.
In place of the moderating influence of former foreign minister Mr Shimon Peres, Mr Sharon is now surrounded by hardline Foreign Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, and Defence Minister, Mr Shaul Mofaz, both of whom have been enthusiastic supporters of exiling the Palestinian leader.
But when the issue of deporting Mr Arafat has been raised after past suicide attacks, the Prime Minister has always balked, referring to a pledge he says he gave the Americans not to harm the Palestinian leader.
Now, even more so, Mr Sharon will be acutely aware of a firm American request that he not take any drastic measures that might destabilise the region on the eve of a possible strike against Saddam Hussein. The head of the Prime Minister's bureau is presently in the US, and that is certainly a message he will be hearing from his hosts.
The conventional political wisdom in Israel is that attacks generally play into the hands of the right-wing, by hardening public opinion against any compromise with the Palestinians.
That was the case in 1996, when Mr Peres held a seemingly unassailable lead in the polls over Mr Netanyahu - but a series of suicide attacks which killed over 50 Israelis in just nine days turned the election around.
The dual suicide attack yesterday is also likely to deflect the focus of the election away from a corruption scandal in the Likud that has dominated the headlines for the last three weeks and which has cut substantially into the party's support.
With the election refocused on security, the Likud might regain some of its lost support.
Already before the attack yesterday, Mr Sharon was trying to steer the campaign toward diplomatic and security issues, attacking the Labour leader, Mr Amram Mitzna, by describing as "irresponsible" his willingness to renew talks with the Palestinians.