IRAQ: The aftermath of the invasion appears to have polarised Kurds, Sunni and Shia, writes Tom Clonan.
The visit by the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, to Iraq coincided with the release of a report by the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, on the political future of Iraq.
Despite some qualified UN support for the Bush administration's revised plans for self-governance within Iraq, the situation on the ground there remains tense. US troops along with Iraqi police, clerics and civilians continue to be killed in Iraq daily.
Most of the 547 US troops killed in Iraq have been victims of a guerrilla war conducted in the main by former Saddam loyalists, members of the Sunni Muslim community. This war of attrition has been conducted for the most part in the "Sunni Triangle" around Baghdad and Fallujah.
So far the predominantly Shia Muslim communities to the south of the country including Basra, Najaf, Kut and Karbala have been relatively quiescent, with few attacks on coalition forces. That situation may be about to change.
The concessions by the US administrator, Paul Bremer, to the powerful Shia leader, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, involving an American timetable for transition to power in Iraq reveal growing pressure on the occupying power from the Shia community.
The US has abandoned its plans for a caucus-style strategy for the election of a temporary parliament - believed to be inimical to Shia interests - in favour of the appointment of an interim government consisting of its existing Iraqi Governing Council (IGC).
This is accompanied by the prospect of full direct elections in spring 2005, a full year ahead of the original schedule. Such elections could give rise to a powerful and ideologically radical Shia majority within Iraq.
Under this revised plan, even though the US-British Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) would be dissolved, coalition troops would remain in Iraq, technically at the invitation of the elected authority. Tensions could arise if such an Iraqi authority were to insist on an Islamic revolutionary style of governance similar to that in Iran. Ominously, both Sunni and Shia members of the IGC have already said they would like to see Islamic sharia law introduced throughout Iraq.
The emerging power-brokers in Iraq appear to be shifting away from the pragmatism and secularism espoused by figureheads such as Ahmed Chalabi and other members of the US appointed IGC towards a more fundamentalist theocratic vision for Iraqi statehood.
This is consistent with the aims and objectives of the Shia-inspired Iraqi Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Established in 1982, SCIRI draws its inspiration from the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran which deposed the Shah and brought about a Shia-dominated Islamic state.
Since the toppling of Saddam, many of SCIRI's hardliners have returned to Iraq from exile abroad and have been building up their power bases within the country and expanding their militias and paramilitary cadres.
Among these militias is the Badr Brigade. Currently tolerated by the US administration in Iraq, the brigade consists of armed Shia groups ostensibly charged with protecting Shia shrines and mosques in the context of a hazardous security environment.
It was originally formed in Iran, with its commanders trained by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There have already been some skirmishes between Badr fighters and US troops.
Ironically for the Americans, before the invasion it was presumed that the swift decapitation of Saddam's regime would have a "magic multiplier" effect on their operations. This hypothesis was based on the premise that the Shia population would spontaneously rise up and support a US-inspired transition to democracy. It was hoped that a successful western-style democracy in Iraq would function to undermine the fundamentalist regimes of neighbouring countries such as Iran.
In recent days, however, Iranian fundamentalists have attempted to tighten their grip on power in Tehran. Meanwhile, unfortunately for Iraqis and Americans alike, the aftermath of the invasion appears to have polarised Kurdish, Sunni and Shia Muslims within the country and galvanised Shia support for an Islamic revolutionary republic of Iraq.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He lectures in the School of Media at DIT.