IRAN: Iran's reform movement was left in tatters after a shock win by radical conservative candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who will now stand against pragmatic cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in a second round for the presidency.
In the most unpredictable elections in the Islamic republic's 26-year history, reformist candidate Mustafa Moin - tipped as one of the favourites - failed to make it to the top three.
The sharp ascent of Mr Ahmadinejad, the mayor of Tehran, left analysts stunned and prompted unprecedented accusations of rigging by mild-mannered centrist reformist candidate Mehdi Karoubi. "There has been bizarre interference. Money has changed hands," Mr Karoubi told reporters.
Mr Ahmadinejad's last-minute win demonstrates the power of conservatives who operate on a grass-root level, mobilising voters by spreading ideas and directives via a network of mosques and local institutions.
The conservatives' main fear was a split vote between the five conservative candidates, and the conservative parliament had put pressure on candidates to drop out in favour of just one.
"It was unpredictable both empirically and anecdotally - Ahmadinejad wasn't doing well in polls prior to the elections and anecdotally he wasn't a name that would come up," said Karim Sadjadpour, an analyst with the International Crisis Group
"So there seems to be a consensus reached at top levels that various organs of the regime, from the basij [ Islamic militia] to the Revolutionary Guard, threw their weight behind Ahmadinejad and voted collectively."
Also surprising was the high voter turnout of 63 per cent, a relief to the regime which was worried a low turnout would question its legitimacy.
Some analysts are saying President Bush's statement criticising the Iranian elections as undemocratic may have inadvertently played into the hands of the regime, spurring nationalistic sentiment and driving non-voters to the ballot boxes.
The results also reflect the issues important to Iranians. Whereas Mr Moin's talk of democracy and western-style freedoms appealed to the minority vote of intellectuals and upper middle-classes, notions of democracy appear too abstract for most ordinary Iranians who battle against high unemployment and rising drug abuse.
Mr Ahmadinejad's populist economic policies of increased subsidies and loans for newly-weds were crucial in securing votes.
His campaigning was reserved compared to his rivals - another factor that could have worked in his favour. The over-stylised and slick campaigning of former police chief and conservative candidate Mohammad Qalibaf backfired. His soft focus images alienated him from his traditional base of supporters.
"Ahmadinejad's appeal is that he's an ordinary, simply guy and his campaign was no-frills, without bells and whistles," Mr Sadjadpour said. "His simple demeanour and straight talk appealed to people."
Mr Ahmadinejad, a former special forces officer from the Revolutionary Guards, has a reputation as an authoritarian hardliner who restricted cultural activities and banned companies from using western sports stars such as David Beckham. He has also enforced strict Islamic dress code, including facial hair for men, among municipal workers.
Analysts are predicting that reformist voters may now flock to the polls on Friday for Iran's first presidential election run-off to vote for Mr Rafsanjani in a bid to secure a conservative defeat.