TO the stock markets, President Boris Yeltsin represents stability. A look at his record will show anyone why the boys in the red braces with the gelled-back hair came to this conclusion.
He started a war in which tens of thousands died. His health was dodgy in the extreme. He drank a lot, conducted an orchestra in Berlin, couldn't manage to get off an aircraft at Shannon, surrounded himself with people who were, to say the least, very shady, and manipulated the media in an extremely undemocratic manner, in order to ensure he beat the commies in the presidential election.
If all this, in the eyes of the stock markets, adds up to a picture of stability, then Russia is now in for an extremely unstable year.
First of all the war is over. Secondly, Mr Yeltsin's heart surgery has improved his chances of physical and political survival. He has also sworn off the drink, has rid himself of many of his crooked henchmen and, not having an upcoming election in which to beat the communists, he has brought some of them into his cabinet and done a budget deal with the rest.
If logic is to be followed, this must add up to a picture of total instability for Russia in 1997. There will be no war. Oil will flow through the pipeline in Grozny. The president will not have one of his heart attacks. He will stay sober and he will let the media say what they want. Orchestras will have to remain unconducted, unfortunately, and foreign heads of government will he ushered into the presence at the appointed time on the appointed day.
While this may be bad news for the economists and dealers, it could turn out to be good news for Russian conscripts and more particularly for Chechen civilians who, now that instability has arrived, have a reasonably good chance of reading The Irish Times's predictions for 1998.
It will also be a good year for foreign businessmen in Moscow, or at least for those who don't get riddled with machine-gun bullets outside the Kievskaya Metro station, which was what happened to the late Paul Tatum, who had the effrontery to demand that his 40 per cent stake in an international hotel be recognised.
Remember, Russia is the land of opportunity. Iranian caviar is on sale in Sheremetyevo Airport's duty-free shop. Traditional pelmeni (dumplings) made in Brooklyn can be bought in downtown Moscow. Absolut from Sweden and Smirnoff from the US are vying to become the biggest sellers of vodka. In other words, Russians are ready to buy anything once it's foreign and expensive.
My big tip for 1997 is to invest in whatever company is prepared to export snow to Siberia. That would be a sure-fire winner.
