CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Dublin South West: Dublin South West is one of Sinn Fein's key targets. Few are betting against them right now, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
The battle for a Sinn Féin seat in Dublin South West began anew in 1997, one day after the battle for a seat in the 28th Dáil was foiled when its candidate, Cllr Sean Crowe, was eliminated with one-third of a quota.
Since then the party has poured its resources into the constituency. On Friday Cllr Crowe will do much better, though his hopes of election will depend on getting a reluctant electorate to the ballot box.
The 1998 Boundary Commission changes, which cut the constituency from a five- to a four-seater, have not helped his hopes, since smaller parties always harbour hopes of picking up the final seat in a five-seater.
However, the changes have seen the PD leader, Ms Mary Harney, move to Dublin Mid West and the retirement of the popular Fianna Fáil former minister of State, Mr Chris Flood.
Over the last year Crowe's chances have waxed and waned in the opinion polls, though he could have reached his peak last summer, particularly after a few wrong calls on local issues. He is backed by teams of canvassers from the North.
The confident belief that its hour has come has sometimes led to increased SF aggression. "Supporters will practically take the door off the hinges to slam it in your face," complained one competing candidate.
The Celtic Tiger has visited the constituency, though not as often as elsewhere. "Still, there is no point canvassing most places during the daytime. There isn't anybody at home. It wasn't like that in 1997," a candidate remarks.
Back then, Fine Gael's youthful Mr Brian Hayes dominated the headlines when he came home on the first count, over quota. Today he is likely to suffer from the general malaise in Fine Gael, though he should still be re-elected.
Fianna Fáil's Mr Conor Lenihan has managed to establish a strong base in the constituency since his election in 1997, helped occasionally by his willingness to "bat" for the party during awkward moments with the media.
His running mate, Cllr Charlie O'Connor, is confident that the blessings of Mr Flood will persuade voters in the Tallaght Central local authority ward to support him, though a strong national swing to FF will be needed to bring him home.
Just 10 years ago Dublin South West was a heartland area of the left. Labour won two seats in 1992 with Mr Mervyn Taylor and Mr Eamonn Walsh, while Mr Pat Rabbitte represented Democratic Left.
This time the now-merged parties can hope to win one at best. Despite his extraordinarily high Dáil profile, Mr Rabbitte is expected to struggle; though few want to imagine his departure from the national stage.
However, his national profile has hurt as much as helped his chances of constituency survival, where some feel that a politician can play the national stage or the local, but not both.
"Mary Harney, Chris Flood and Pat went to a meeting one night. They told the crowd that they had to leave at 8.25 p.m. for an important vote in the Dáil. One woman got up and yelled, 'We didn't elect you to be voting in the Dáil',", said one Rabbitte admirer resignedly.
Five years ago Cllr Walsh's hopes of retaining his seat were in trouble from the off when he found himself in sixth place after the first count.
He has little hope of seeing the inside of Leinster House as a TD this time.
The loss of Cllr Mick Billane to Fianna Fáil recently will have dented Labour's hopes, while the residues of bitterness left over from the Labour-Democratic Left merger are not helping either.
Some of the other candidates, whose transfers will be crucial in deciding the final outcome, are Mr Patrick Quinn of the Green Party, Mr Mick Murphy of the Socialist Party, Mr Darragh O'Reilly of the Christian Solidarity Party and Mr Ray Kelly, Independent.
In 1997 Fianna Fáil's vote increased marginally in the constituency, but it still stood at just under 30 per cent.
If the predicted national swing for the party emerges in Dublin South West then it is not inconceivable that Cllr O'Connor could join Mr Lenihan in the Dáil.
Prediction: FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1, Sinn Féin 1.