Council area profile/Monaghan: The future of Monaghan hospital is the biggest issue in the forthcoming local elections across a large part of this county.
The hospital issue dominated the 2002 general election campaign, and saw the election of hospital candidate Mr Paudge Connolly. The current campaign is no different. Fianna Fáil, which had a poor performance in the last local elections, is set for further losses, with the party in effective disarray in the northern part of the county.
Internal divisions between various wings of the party in the county in recent years have added to the party's electoral tribulations, and it will prove almost impossible for it to hold on to its current eight seats. As one senior Fianna Fáil politician put it: "I don't know what they're up to in Monaghan; it's a total mess."
Monaghan proved to be Sinn Féin's biggest success in the last local elections when it got six candidates elected to the county council. Should it take one additional seat it could feasibly become the largest party on Monaghan County Council. The odds would be long on this outcome, but Fianna Fáil could lose at least two of its seats, reducing it to six.
In the Monaghan electoral area, which covers the northern part of the county and the town environs, the hospital has proved a major issue. In 1999, this six-seat electoral area returned three Sinn Féin councillors, two Fianna Fáil and one from Fine Gael.
With voters expected to return the three Sinn Féin incumbents, the main question is whether Fianna Fáil can hold on to its two. As of Friday, the party had not even nominated its candidates, with the local organisation refusing to field candidates unless it received commitments from Government regarding the future of the local hospital.
At the 11th hour, the Minister for Health provided a letter of comfort. However, the sitting councillors, Mr Patsy Traynor and Mr Willie McKenna, decided not to run. Town councillor Mr Robbie Gallagher, and the secretary of the North Monaghan Fianna Fáil Comhairle Ceantair, Ms Emer Brennan, were selected instead.
With less than three weeks before polling, both face a serious struggle, especially given local feeling surrounding the hospital issue, and Mr Martin's letter of reassurance may not be enough to save both seats.
Fine Gael has the greatest chance of gaining a seat with three candidates. Incumbent councillor Mr Pat McKenna is in a strong position to hold his seat, while Mr Eugene Sherry enjoys a large profile as a prominent IFA activist in north Monaghan, and is expected to poll well.
In the Clones area, there are six strong candidates running for four seats in what is expected to be a very tight race. Monaghan hospital is again a dominant issue,with one hospital candidate, Mr Brendan Casey, running and expected to poll well.
Fianna Fáil's single seat in this area was held by Ms Ann Leonard, a former senator. The party is fielding two candidates, Mr Eugene McCaughey and Mr Benny Kiernan, with the latter expected to poll very strongly.
Fine Gael's two incumbents, Ms Heather Humphreys and Mr Hugh McElvaney, are also strong candidates, while Sinn Féin, which currently has one seat, is fielding two candidates, with only an outside chance of gaining a seat.
In Castleblayney, Monaghan hospital is not the major issue it is in the north of the county, but the long-running row over public access to Lough Muckno park and estate is to the fore. Mr Joe Brennan, an independent candidate, has a strong record on this issue. Fine Gael's two seats are considered safe in this area, as is Sinn Féin's single seat. It is Fianna Fáil, which is fielding three candidates, that is again under pressure to hold its two seats in this electoral area.
The best chance for Sinn Féin to gain a seat in Monaghan is in the five-seat Carrickmacross electoral area, most likely at the expense of Fianna Fáil. Mr Noel Keelan is the party's only councillor in the area, but Mr Matt Carthy, a 25-year-old town councillor for Carrickmacross, is expected to poll well.
The performance of Fianna Fáil's four candidates could prove very important for the party in future general elections, in that two of the three sitting Fianna Fáil councillors, Mr Pádraig McNally and Mr Shane O'Hanlon (son of Dáil Ceann Comhairle, Dr Rory O'Hanlon), are both seen as front-runners for any future Fianna Fáil nomination in Monaghan.