Several options are being explored in this week's crises talks, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor in Belfast
In the Assembly yesterday, Sinn Féin's Conor Murphy said there must be an in-house investigation into how the PSNI raided the party's offices on Friday. The DUP's Peter Robinson said there must be a similar inquiry into how Sinn Féin ferried the TV cameras into its offices to film the proceedings.
An image of moving deckchairs and the Titanic came to mind. Still, while the ship of the Belfast Agreement remains above water, the British and Irish governments will persist in their efforts to avoid the iceberg.
Crisis talks are the order of the day: the Taoiseach and Gerry Adams yesterday and with Mark Durkan today; David Trimble and British Prime Minister today; Mr Ahern and Mr Blair tomorrow; Mr Adams and Prime Minister on Thursday or Friday.
Several options are being explored although London in particular is finding it difficult to devise a workable alternative to a rolling suspension of the Executive, Assembly and institutions. Dublin doesn't like the idea of cryogenically freezing the institutions in the hope that they can be later revived and tomorrow's night Downing Street meeting between Mr Ahern and Mr Blair may be difficult.
Government sources here harbour suspicions about the timing of the raids and arrests. There is some sympathy with the Sinn Féin president's claim that it was done to take the heat off the Ulster Unionist leader and switch most of the blame for the inevitable collapse of the Executive on to Sinn Féin.
Why, Sinn Féin continues to wonder, did it take the police until Friday to act when the messenger who was allegedly photo-copying the details of the Northern Secretary Dr Reid's in and out trays was allegedly caught in the act 13 months ago. And what was Dr Reid's thinking in all this when in July he issued the yellow card against Sinn Féin while being aware of the alleged IRA infiltrator.
The question is, who gains?
Had David Trimble walked away from the Executive in January as per the compromise Donaldson/Trimble Ulster Unionist Council motion, then Ulster Unionists would be blamed for collapsing the institutions. Remember too that even President Bush's special envoy on Northern Ireland, Richard Haass, was critical of the UUC motion.
Now Sinn Féin takes the rap while Mr Trimble is reprieved.
"There is a problem over the timing. Maybe we will get satisfactory answers when Bertie and Tony get together," said one Dublin source. "The question also has to be asked is what in God's name were republicans doing? Is it just a question of old habits die hard?"
Belfast security and political sources say there are a number of factors to the raids happening on Friday: firstly, that while the employee was suspected of copying documents in September last year, it took some time before the seriousness of the situation was established.
Secondly, that there was a concern that if the police did not strike now the evidence would be shredded; thirdly, police wanted to track the material to the IRA's alleged intelligence nerve centre and, finally, that new PSNI chief Hugh Orde had total operational independence in the matter and decided now was the best time to move.
The irony in all this crisis is that the British and Irish governments and possibly even Mr Trimble, believe that the IRA and Sinn Féin are committed to the peace process and that while Provisional republicans continue to gather intelligence, they had no intention of using it.
"But try telling that to even the most moderate unionist in this climate," as one London source put it. The talk of conspiracy and republicans' peaceful intentions, while important, in the larger scheme of things is largely academic.
News of hundreds of prison officers, who come from the heart of the unionist community, being warned that their personal details are allegedly in the hands of the IRA just exacerbates a bleak crisis.
Mr Trimble will urge Mr Blair to seek the expulsion of Sinn Féin from the Executive when it meets today. It seems that the best Mr Blair can do is buy some time. Dublin opposes suspension and favours elections and then negotiations, which oddly is the DUP line and the DUP, seeking to steal some of Mr Trimble's angry thunder, now says it will withdraw its ministers from the Executive before the UUP does.
The British government however, which has the main operational responsibility, while open to any rescue suggestions is tending towards suspension as the main option, in the hope that over an extended period the IRA - perhaps based on some new sequencing arrangement involving demilitarisation and policing - will carry out a dramatic act to unfreeze politics.