Tensions within Fianna Fáil could lose the party a seat, writes Barry Roche, Southern Correspondent.
In the 2002 general election, disability rights campaigner, Kathy Sinnott gave Fianna Fáil quite a scare in Cork South Central before finally losing out, after two recounts, to veteran TD John Dennehy by just six votes. The bad news for Fianna Fáil is that Ms Sinnott hasn't gone away.
According to the most recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, Sinnott will be fighting hard with outgoing Fianna Fáil MEP, Gerard Collins for the final seat in the three seat Euro South constituency.
The poll put the other sitting Fianna Fáil MEP, Brian Crowley, top with 32 per cent followed by Fine Gael's Simon Coveney on 23 per cent with Ms Sinnott on 15 per cent - one point ahead of Mr Collins on 14 per cent. David Cullinane of Sinn Féin is on 8 per cent, Labour's Brendan Ryan is on 4 per cent and the Green's Chris O'Leary is on 3 per cent.
The most significant finding is the upsurge in Sinnott's fortunes from 9 per cent to 15 per cent - enough to put her ahead of Collins who dropped from 17 per cent to 14 per cent in the same period. With 1 per cent corresponding to around 4,000 votes, each fraction of a percentage point is vital.
The Collins camp and party HQ argue that Fianna Fáil's problem has been created by Crowley, who has failed to abide by a constituency divide which would have given him most of Cork city and county as well as South Tipperary and Waterford city. The rest of the constituency - Kerry, Limerick, North Tipperary and Waterford - was to be Collins country.
Crowley's people have a different take on events. They say he is only attracting support in the north of the constituency that wasn't going to Collins and would have otherwise been lost to the party.
The antagonism between the camps goes back to 1994. In that Euro election, Crowley polled 84,463 votes while Collins got a healthy 49,677 and both were elected. In 1999, Crowley polled a whopping 154,195 votes, as against 83,106 votes for Collins.
Since then, Munster has lost Clare and one seat to become South constituency. Although Clare is closer to Collins's base in Limerick, Crowley actually outpolled him there in 1999 by 13,500 votes to 7,500 votes.
Fine Gael's Simon Coveney has probably benefited most from sitting MEP Pat Cox's decision to stand down though Cox's Independent's vote is likely to go everywhere.
Last time round, just over half of Crowley's surplus of 64,000 votes went to Collins. If Collins trails Sinnott on first preferences, he will need closer to 60 per cent of Crowley's transfers and probably more.
One senior Fianna Fáil source predicted party HQ will direct activists throughout the constituency - including in Cork - to give their No 1 to Collins. "Party members are astute and will know that they have to bring Collins' first preference vote back up above Sinnott," he said.
If Sinnott takes the last seat that would mean that the three MEPs would all come from Cork leaving Limerick and the rest of the constituency without an MEP for the first time.
A source from the Cox camp reckons that unlike the friction between Jim McDaid and Sean Ó Neachtain in North West and Mairead McGuinness and Avril Doyle in East, the antagonism between Collins and Crowley doesn't seem to be working to their mutual benefit with Crowley stubbornly maintaining his huge lead. "I can still see Collins taking the seat though because I think a lot of people see Kathy Sinnott as a single issue candidate and you need to be broader than that to work in Europe," the source said.
Sinnott's camp don't agree and are confident. "The trend for us over the past three weeks is one of growing support - for Fianna Fáil now, it's a bit like being on the Titanic and spotting the iceberg but I don't think they have time to turn it around," said one Sinnott activist.
Transfers will decide the day. Where the votes of the Greens' Chris O'Leary, Labour's Brendan Ryan and Sinn Féin's David Cullinane go will be crucial. O'Leary and Ryan are both Cork-based, meaning Sinnott should benefit. She may also gain from a protest element in O'Leary's vote though Ryan has challenged her over her stance on contraception and divorce and his supporters may not transfer to her in great numbers.
Sinn Féin's Cullinane is sure to get a strong vote in Kerry where Martin Ferris is a TD. Some of his vote is likely to transfer to Collins, while Sinnott might benefit from transfers from anti-establishment protest voters.
For Labour's Brendan Ryan, the polls are disappointing. While Labour nationally is at 13 per cent, he is registering just 4 per cent. Labour hasn't had a particularly good return in the constituency in either 1994 or 1999 and the fact he is Cork-based and fishing for votes in the same pond as Crowley, Coveney and Sinnott hasn't helped.
There are three other Independents running - Gerard Hannan from Limerick, Anthony O'Connor from Kerry and Lily Moynihan from Cork city.
Ms Moynihan's son Adrian died in 2001 after an altercation outside a nightclub but there was no prosecution in the case. She is campaigning for reform of the justice system. Among the policies advocated by Mr Anthony O'Connor, a farmer, are that road tankers be used to transport seawater to a network of heated seawater swimming pools to encourage winter tourism. Mr Hannan is campaigning against the smoking ban and bin charges on the elderly and for the return of LRO station's broadcasting licence.
Prediction: Fianna Fáil, 1; Fine Gael, 1; Independent, 1.