POLITICAL ANALYSIS: If the Opposition parties can capitalise on this setback, they may still be in the hunt for government. Ten days and a switch of almost five points in voting intentions saw the defeat of the Government's proposals, writes Denis Coghlan
It wasn't supposed to happen. The prepared script had envisaged Bertie Ahern's triumphant entry to the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis this weekend with anti-abortion legislation under his arm. There, he would have launched a May general election campaign under the benign eye of the Catholic Hierarchy and it was a pound to a penny the party would attract increased support.
There were other considerations. The party would have enjoyed a psychological lift from a referendum win. A promise would have been kept. And the Independent TDs who had kept the Coalition Government in office for the past five years would have been kept sweet. Fianna Fáil could depend on their support in forming the next government, should that prove necessary.
Now it's back to the drawing board. The ardfheis will be used as the launch pad for the general election. But the script must change.
The will of the people would be respected, the Taoiseach intoned. But he declined to say what, precisely, that meant.
It certainly did not mean early legislation to give effect to the X case judgment.
Mr Ahern wasn't going to antagonise the near-50 per cent of the electorate who had voted Yes by changing tack in advance of an election.
Anyway, he explained, it was impossible to say what the No vote meant because people in that category held entirely different views about what should be done.
In spite of his "will of the people" guff on the steps of Government Buildings, the Taoiseach had acknowledged the political reality some days ago when he said that if the referendum failed, he would be in no hurry to bring in legislation.
That, however, wouldn't stop him entering into discussions with Ruairí Quinn if a government had to be formed.
Six years of painstaking political work went up in smoke for Mr Ahern when the people voted No.
It was all about covering political angles. The abortion issue took fire before the last general election when Mr Ahern went looking for votes and gave a commitment to deal with the issue if he became Taoiseach.
In contrast, the leaders of the Rainbow Coalition - John Bruton, Dick Spring and Proinsias de Rossa - appeared committed to doing nothing.
The issue rekindled as a personal crusade when the Fianna Fáil leader gave abortion referendum commitments to Mildred Fox, Jackie Healy-Rae, Harry Blaney and Tom Gildea in return for supporting the minority Government. (Mr Healy-Rae has denied that he personally sought the abortion poll).
Over the years, a joint Oireachtas Committee and a Government Green Paper kept the flame alive.
Last autumn, referendum proposals were published as an election curtain-raiser when the Taoiseach committed himself to a moderate, consensual approach on the issue.
Predictably, the divisions that had existed in 1992 resurfaced. Ruairí Quinn and the Labour Party promised to legislate for the Supreme Court judgment in the X case. Michael Noonan and Fine Gael concentrated their fire on what was wrong with the Government's referendum, and soft-pedalled their own proposals.
The Progressive Democrats dithered once again.
Back in 1992, when Albert Reynolds sought to roll back the Supreme Court judgment in the X case, the Progressive Democrats sat tight in government and let him have his way.
But when that government fell, the Progressive Democrats campaigned against.
This time, and still in government, they went more than half of the road with Fianna Fáil.
This defeat offers traction to the Opposition parties. The battle lines were clearly drawn as the referendum went off the rails.
Of particular interest to the Labour Party and Fine Gael - not to mention the Green Party and Sinn Féin - was the comprehensive manner in which Dublin voted No and turned out in large numbers.
Dublin will be the cockpit of the general election and Fianna Fáil is weakest there, according to recent opinion polls. If the Opposition parties can capitalise on this Government setback and gain ground on social and economic issues with this section of voters, they may still be in the hunt for government. But it will be a hard haul.
At this stage, Michael Noonan is basking in the glow from a successful campaign and talking quietly about legislation.
But, within his party, there are those who deeply resent the high-profile role played by John Bruton in advocating a Yes vote, and they question his motives. But with an election pending, party unity is a priority.
For the second time in a decade the electorate rejected a Fianna Fáil proposal to roll back the Supreme Court judgment in the X case.
Mr Ahern was angry and disappointed by the outcome. His body language spoke volumes as he formally conceded defeat. But he is still in Government and on track to becoming the next Taoiseach.
This weekend, he will go before his party's ardfheis in Dublin and try to pick up the pieces.