A blanket ban on smoking in pubs would result in between 3,100 and 8,500 job losses, and a loss to the Exchequer of between €69 million and €190 million, according to the latest economic assessment
The research, carried out for publicans' representative bodies, also showed a drop in sales of between 8 and 22 per cent.
A DCU economist, Mr Tony Foley, carried out the economic impact study for the Licensed Vintners' Association (LVA) and the Vintners' Federation of Ireland (VFI) who between them represent 95 per cent of retail sales of alcohol in licensed premises.
The economic impact study is at variance with the research carried out for the Irish Hospitality Industry Alliance, which last week suggested a minimum 5 per cent loss in sales, 10,700 potential redundancies and a loss to the Exchequer of €157 million.
Carried out by A & L Goodbody, that study showed a worst case scenario of 64,200 job losses, a 30 per cent fall in alcohol sales and and Exchequer losses of €1 billion.
Mr Donall O'Keeffe, chief executive of the LVA, said the economic impact study was a "predictive piece of work" and formed a "sound basis for projections of what our customers are telling us they are going to do".
Asked how the public could believe any research when it was so varied and would be seen as "loaded", Mr Tadg O'Sullivan, the VFI chief executive, said that the work was carried out by professionals who would stand over the results
The two men were speaking at the launch of their "Customer Choice and Common Sense" compromise proposals, which the vintners view as a "realistic alternative" to a complete ban on pub smoking from January. The two associations called for a partial ban to be introduced for two years, including a prohibition at the bar counter and in 50 per cent of the pub.
A survey carried out for the associations showed that 54 per cent of pub customers favoured a separate smoking area rather than a complete ban, which was favoured by 31 per cent. Support for designated smoking areas rose to 72 per cent among smokers while 7 per cent of smokers preferred a complete ban.
The survey of a representative 1,088 adults, conducted in face-to-face interviews by the organisation Behaviour and Attitudes, showed that smokers used pubs 20 per cent more than the average adult, while 27 per cent of all adults and 33 per cent of all 18 to 35-year-olds smoked. He said that the "two most valuable assets in anybody's business are staff and customers and we want to work to protect both". He believed their proposals were a good compromise.
The Minister for Health has already rejected any dilution of the ban and the trade union Mandate, which represents bar workers, said the two-year delay would "guarantee bar staff's exposure to cancer-causing smoke for two more years".
The Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Mr Tom Kitt, is the latest Minister to back the ban. He said yesterday he was "foursquare" behind Mr Martin.
