SCOTLAND:SCOTTISH FIRST minister Alex Salmond claims "the ground in Glasgow East is shuddering" and that the SNP will win Thursday's byelection despite a second opinion poll putting Labour's Margaret Curran in the lead.
"I'm optimistic, upbeat, and the earthquake is on the way," Mr Salmond told Sky News yesterday following a report in the Sunday Heraldthat Labour and SNP canvass returns suggest the outcome could be determined by less than 1,000 votes.
With the hostage crisis again casting the shadow of Iraq across the country as a whole, defeat in Labour's 25th safest seat would spell a fresh crisis of confidence in prime minister Gordon Brown's leadership - with yet another national opinion poll yesterday showing the Conservatives with a 21-point lead and on course for a three-figure majority in a new House of Commons.
Local commentators were inclined to dismiss Saturday's survey for the Scottish Daily Mailgiving Labour a 17-point lead over Scottish National Party candidate John Mason as a likely "rogue poll", given a sample size of 509 voters.
However, Mr Salmond seized on the fact that 29 per cent of those surveyed declared themselves as yet undecided, saying: "Our support is strong, motivated, and it's going to turn out. The poll shows a lot of undecideds - but the only reason those people are undecided is they are moving from the Labour Party to the SNP."
Labour naturally played down its suggested advantage in Glasgow East, insisting: "We are not going to get carried away by this poll. We are taking nothing for granted and fighting for every vote."
That fight to defend its 13,507 majority saw Labour target some 20,000 homes in a weekend canvassing blitz that belied one report yesterday suggesting its volunteers were "defeatist and downbeat".
The fighting spirit was reflected by Scottish Office Minister David Cairns, who said: "We are in very good spirits. The reception is genuinely really good. We don't think our vote is collapsing, far from it."
Despite the necessary public denial of any complacency, moreover, it was also clear that some of those closely involved in the Labour campaign were privately tempted to believe the polls to be correct, at least in pointing to an end to the political honeymoon enjoyed by Mr Salmond since he formed his minority nationalist government in Holyrood a year ago.
Bookmakers William Hill also quoted Labour as 2/5 favourites to hold the seat amid "tremendous business in a constituency which would normally be unbettable".
Ladbrokes, which quoted Labour at 4/11 and the SNP at 15/8, also reported "unprecedented" interest, with betting also on a turnout of 35 to 40 per cent.
Yesterday's ComRes survey for the Independent on Sundayput the Conservatives nationally on 45 per cent, one point up on a similar poll last month, with Labour two points down on 24 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down one point at 16 per cent.