The Socialist Party of the Hungarian Prime Minister, Mr Gyula Horn, was last night leading in the third free legislative poll since the end of communism but a massive surge by the right could still block his forming a government.
The MSZP, the leader of the outgoing social-liberal coalition, had won 32.24 per cent of the vote in the first round of voting with 97.95 per cent of the ballot counted, the National Election Bureau said.
But its main rival, the opposition right-wing Federation of Young Democrats (Fidesz-MPP), had 28.21 per cent - a massive gain from its 5.7 per cent share of the vote in the previous election in 1994.
And its co-operation with other surging right-wing parties could prevent the Socialists forming a government, election officials said.
A crucial second round of voting scheduled for May 24th will tell whether the Socialists can win 60 more seats to the 110 seats won so far in the 386-seat parliament, to be able to form a coalition government.
Under Hungarian law, the president asks the winner to form a government, but parliament has to approve the prime minister by a simple majority. Right-wing cooperation could easily prevent approval.
The right-wing surge was marked by the fact that for the first time in post-war Hungary, the extreme right-wing Party of Hungarian Life and Justice (MIEP) passed the 5 per cent threshold needed for parliamentary representation, winning 5.55 of the vote.
The nationalist right-wing Independent Smallholders' Party (FKGP) won 13.74 per cent of the vote, compared to its 6.74 per cent parliamentary representation in the previous term.
The outgoing centre-left social-liberal coalition was shaken by the unexpectedly poor showing of the junior coalition partner, the liberal Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), which has plunged to 7.89 per cent from its 18.13 per cent share of the vote in 1994.
Yesterday's first round of voting was expected to decide the broad lines of the new government, but it will take a second round to precisely allocate the seats in the 386-seat unicameral parliament.
The two rounds of voting are decided by a mix of direct election and proportional representation, where each voter has two ballot papers: one for an individual candidate, and one for a party list. Mr Horn had hoped for a comfortable re-election. His party, which in 1994 won 55.15 per cent, can boast one of the most successful economies of eastern Europe. "The winner of this first round is the Hungarian Socialist Party," Mr Horn declared after the broad outlines of the first-round vote were published. But he said he was not happy about the rightwing surge, and especially not so about MIEP's getting into parliament. "I am not happy. Who in their senses could be?" he told state television.
The elections are unlikely to effect Hungary's movement towards the West, including the European Union and NATO. Hungary is expected to join NATO next year and started accession talks with the EU at the end of March.
But if the right formed a government, the process could be more uphill as it sees the EU as having interests which severely clash with Hungary's.