A dull Polish election campaign culminated in a surprising election result on Sunday night as voters returned to a revamped anti-communist Solidarity movement for new leadership.
The strong showing of the Solidarity Electoral Alliance (Akcja Wyborcza Solidarnosc) surprised the pollsters and disappointed the formerly communist Democratic Left Alliance. The left had campaigned on its record as a stable party of government that had delivered security and, above all, steady economic growth. It had hoped to be confirmed as the largest party with a good chance of retaining power.
Instead, many voters decided that, with Poland arguably more prosperous and more secure than ever in its history, it was safe to gamble: a vote for Solidarity would not necessarily lead to a replay of the feuding between inexperienced leaders that had fatally undermined the first Solidarity coalition governments after 1989.
The final result is not expected until later this week. But partial results and exit polls indicate a seismic shift, virtually ensuring that the next coalition government will be formed by the Solidarity alliance. Instead of being returned in glory, the former communists, who picked up about four million votes, will be isolated in opposition.
Two big question marks hang over this scenario. Will the Solidarity alliance, a disparate group of 36 parties united mainly by anti-communism, remain a coherent force or shatter under the pressure of government? Second, can a workable coalition be formed between the Catholic-influenced Solidarity alliance, which has a trade union base in the state-owned mines and big factories, and the pro-business Freedom Union led by Mr Leszek Balcerowicz, the architect of Poland's post-communist shock therapy?
Both parties are rooted in the same anti-communist past. But there are big differences between them on both social and economic issues. Mr Balcerowicz wants to cut back and privatise the old state monopolies that give coalminers, power-station workers and steel men the power to block reform and keep wages high in spite of heavy losses. Mr Krzaklewski insists he is also in favour of reform, but not at the expense of his unionised workingclass supporters.
On social issues, too, the deeply Catholic Mr Krzaklewski supports the papal position on abortion and divorce. The more educated middle-class supporters of the Freedom Union tend to favour freedom of choice, partly driven by a wish to see Poland become more like other European countries.
Supporters of Freedom Union are wealthier and less attached to the symbols and beliefs of the old proletarian and peasant country. Unlike supporters of Solidarity and the former communists, they tend not to fear the greater competition and openness which will come from entry to the European Union.
These ideological differences are compounded by personal factors. Mr Marian Krzaklewski, the leader of the Solidarity alliance, insists a new coalition must be based on Solidarity's programme.
In the economic sphere at least, this is distinctly thin compared with the detailed blueprint of the "second Balcerowicz plan", a radical free-market programme, including a pledge to cut back loss-making mines and factories and to privatise 80 per cent of the economy and all banks. Not surprisingly, the Freedom Union leader argues that his plan should be adopted.
Mr Krzaklewski has also made it clear he does not intend to become prime minister. He is setting his sights on ousting Alexander Kwasniewski, the President and a former communist, in elections scheduled for 2000. By standing aside, he is expected to provoke fierce competition for the premiership between the various groups inside the Solidarity alliance, as well as between the alliance and ambitious figures within the Freedom Union.
Mr Balcerowicz dominated the Freedom Union campaign and was rewarded with an estimated 1315 per cent of the vote. He has established his party as the representative of Poland's emerging business and professional class. In effect, he has turned the Freedom Union into the king-maker of Polish politics.
The Freedom Union includes many Solidarity veterans who are more interested in politics than economics.
Whoever forms the government when the new parliament opens on October 20th will take responsibility for a Poland far different, and more constrained, than that which emerged impoverished but unbowed from Soviet domination eight years ago.
Poland was the first post-communist country to embark on market-based reform in 1990 and the first to return to economic growth two years later. The combination of $16 billion in foreign direct investment and the release of domestic entrepreneurial energy has spawned more than 2.5 million private companies.
This has transformed the economy and raised living standards: the International Monetary Fund estimates that average real incomes have risen 80 per cent over the past four years, albeit from a low base.
Reforms were started by Solidarity but continued under the former communists. This illustrates Poland's broad consensus on economic and foreign policy in spite of the deep divisions that persist between former communists and anti-communists.