Somalia:Islamic militias have suffered a setback, but time is running out to bring warring clans to heel, writes Rob Crillyin Nairobi.
A grenade attack in Mogadishu; a steady flow of refugees towards the borders; and an aid ship off the coast, under the control of pirates. Yesterday was business as usual for the war-weary people of Somalia.
Less than two months since Somali government forces and their Ethiopian allies ousted Islamic militias from the capital, the country is sliding into anarchy once again.
Analysts are warning that the government is failing to stamp its authority on the capital Mogadishu and that time is running out for bringing the country's warring clans together.
An unknown attacker hurled a grenade at a fuel stall yesterday, causing an explosion that injured five people.
Such attacks are becoming increasingly common - and deadly.
Shootings and rocket attacks have occurred on an almost daily basis since the transitional government took over the capital at the end of last year, replacing the Union of Islamic Courts which had managed to restore order to most of Mogadishu.
Since then Ethiopian forces, Somali security and government buildings have been targeted by the hardline remnants of the Islamist and clan militias.
A Nairobi-based analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "We're back to the position where the Transitional Federal Government may have to give up on Mogadishu. I can see them sitting down somewhere else and leaving Mogadishu to fester, just like they were forced to for their first two years."
With violence intensifying and support ebbing from the government, he added, "Things are going to get worse before they get better."
The violence has already sparked a mass exodus from the city. Some are heading to the northern port of Bossaso where boats carry people to Yemen while others are believed to be on their way to Kenya.
The International Committee of the Red Cross has warned of an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe with hundreds of people admitted to hospitals in the capital.
"The ICRC is deeply concerned about the plight of civilians caught up in the fighting and calls on all warring parties to comply with the rules of international humanitarian law," the group said in a statement.
President Abdullahi Yusuf's administration is the 14th attempt at government since 1991 when Mohamed Siad Barre's brutal regime was toppled.
Today the country is made up of a patchwork of clan territories whose bloody rivalries have undermined every recent attempt at forging a national government.
In particular, members of the Hawiye clan - the prominent grouping in Mogadishu - have deep reservations about a government they believe is dominated by rival clans.
They are unlikely to be satisfied until Ali Mohamed Gedi is replaced as prime minister. A political novice, many believe he has been a weak advocate for Hawiye interests.
"It's just a question of whether the government can be inclusive enough and can the Hawiye feel they have a role," a western diplomat told Reuters news agency.
Meanwhile the pirates have returned to Somalia's coastline.
Fast vessels carrying armed gangs made Somali waters a no-go area for commercial shipping during Somalia's 16 years of anarchy.
In recent years the World Food Programme was forced to send relief supplies overland after a spate of hijackings.
That changed under the Islamic Courts, which managed to put the pirates out of business.
Now they are threatening to halt aid deliveries once again.
On Sunday pirates armed with AK-47s boarded the MV Rozen shortly after she had unloaded 1,800 tonnes of aid.
Peter Goossens, WFP country director for Somalia, said: "Such acts of piracy might undermine the delivery of relief food to vulnerable people in Somalia and could further worsen the prevailing precarious humanitarian situation."
The United Nations Security Council has endorsed plans for an 8,000-strong African Union force for Somalia but only about half that number of troops has been promised.