Few politicians relish the prospect of a diplomatic conflict with Washington over war in Iraq, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
For months, the Government and others on the Opposition side of the Dáil have danced in the half-light about their attitude towards an invasion of Iraq by the United States. However, the hour of reckoning is close at hand.
By the end of the month, US troops, supported by UK forces, could be bound for Baghdad regardless of the opinions of the United Nations Security Council.
Few politicians, outside of, perhaps, the Greens and a few Independent TDs, greet the prospect of an outright diplomatic conflict with Washington with enthusiasm, despite the significant opposition that exists here to war. A clear second UN resolution would solve many of the problems for the Government and the main Opposition parties, though, ironically, it would leave the anti-war lobby over the spit.
Fianna Fáil's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Brian Cowen, has mixed tough pro-US declarations with a desire for a peaceful solution, topped off with an emphasis on the UN's primacy in international relations. With the general support of TDs, Cowen has also supported the US's right to arm-twist concessions from Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein by building up its forces in the Gulf.
Following embarrassment over security at Shannon Airport, the Government has deployed the Army and yet quietly threatened to block use to Shannon if a war unsanctioned by the UN begins. Such a move by the Government would be taken warily, if at all, given the need to protect Shannon's future and the knowledge that Uncle Sam can be a very good friend, but a very bad enemy.
"I don't believe the US will be refused landing rights. The Government would allow in humanitarian flights and dress it up so that it did not look like Ireland had drawn down the hatch," says one FF backbencher.
"It is a difficult position for Cowen. So far, people in FF believe that he has performed well. They don't want to make life any more difficult for him until he has had a chance to decide," he adds.
However, more than a few are, for now, quietly uneasy about the situation.
"People are concerned about war," said Fianna Fáil Senator Martin Mansergh, during an informed, and informative Seanad debate on Thursday. He added: "There is widespread concern that there is too much belief by our friends in the United States in the efficacy of force and not necessarily as a last resort."
But the Government has little room for manoeuvre. Between now and March, it will need both the help of the White House and British Prime Minister, Tony Blair to resolve the impasse in the Northern Ireland peace process.
"You can't be talking to guys looking for their help and then kick them on something they feel strongly about - particularly when their people will be the ones doing the fighting," comments one senior figure.
The Progressive Democrats, so far, has been in complete harmony with Fianna Fáil on the issue, as illustrated by Limerick East Minister of State, Tim O'Malley, who acknowledged that the value of military contracts to Shannon could not be ignored, even if they could not be the only yardstick used to decide Government policy.
So far, the Fine Gael frontbench has adopted a clear stand. Access by the US military to Shannon Airport is fine for now, but unilateral action by the US is not on.
However, this policy is likely to come under severe strain if the US goes it alone. Waterford TD John Deasy says: "Some people, even though they have deep reservations, would be prepared to support the US."
The Labour Party is back on familiar ground. "Nobody wants to be faced with a choice between the United States and the United Nations. But if we are, then the UN will win every time," says one senior party figure. "We've defined ourselves for 50 years on this issue."
Though the lead roles in the anti-war campaign have been filled by the Greens, Labour is happy with the performance of long-time critic of US foreign policy, Galway West TD, Michael D. Higgins.
"He has played a blinder during this whole affair. His 'branding' on this subject is so strong that he overwhelms the party's image, but that isn't his fault," The Irish Times was told.
Though US military solo runs are not acceptable, Northern Ireland is weighing on Labour's mind: "The US will be very much involved over the next few weeks. Everybody is aware of that."
Rightly, or wrongly, Sinn Féin is mostly sanguine when faced with talk that relations between Washington and Dublin will cool, or, perhaps, since it is one of the players in the NI talks, the party simply prizes its negotiating skills.
"I don't see how it impacts. There are lots of issues you could pick out where SF and the Bush Administration, and Clinton's one, would have been at variance, and it did not make a difference," according to one party figure.
In the absence of a UN mandate, the Green Party is enjoying the benefit of simple opposition, with the added political bonus of attaching itself to a larger-than-usual bloc of support.
Condemning President Bush, Cork South Central Green Party TD Dan Boyle said, "Unfortunately, the people of America are being badly led, as are the people of this country. The US is badly misled and is being dragged into a military conflict for motives that are less than pure, for reasons that are far from explainable and ends that are of questionable morality."
Curiously, politicians in most parties believe the attitude of a significant section of the Irish public is complicated by the presence of George Bush in the Oval Office.
"There is a real anti-Bush feeling out there. It comes out very quickly when you talk to people on this. It isn't anti-Americanism. This anti-Bush sentiment emerges from people who are pro-US," says Fianna Fáil Clare TD Tony Killeen.
Diplomacy is the murkiest of businesses, where issues are rarely clear, where judgments have to be made on partial information, and where decisions taken in haste can be repented in later discomfort.