Overview:In essence, this election will be about who will yield, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
At the start of election campaigns party psephologists crank into bamboozle mode. That's their job.
Interrogate the main party experts and it's clear that the Assembly election on March 7th will turn out like this: DUP, 40 seats; Sinn Féin, 27 seats; Ulster Unionists, 24 seats; SDLP, 22; Alliance 7; and one seat each for United Kingdom Unionist Party, Progressive Unionist Party and Independents Dr Kieran Deeny and Paul Berry.
But, as the Americans say, do the math and you will observe a problem. Those figures total to 124 politicians returned to the house on the hill at Stormont if the DUP and Sinn Féin do a deal (which is another issue entirely) by the St Andrews Agreement deadline of March 26th.
Yet, try as you might, you can't squeeze 124 politicians into 108 seats, because that's all there are. Something has got to give, which in essence is what this election will be about: who will yield and who will triumph.
Unlike the last 2003 Assembly poll, which ultimately was an election to nothing, this potentially is an election to a fully functioning powersharing northern executive with DUP leader Ian Paisley as first minister and Sinn Féin's Martin McGuinness as deputy first minister.
The key word here is "potentially". It's far from certain that devolution can happen by March 26th because the DUP leadership will not during the course of this campaign provide straight answers to straight questions, which they will be asked again and again, as to whether they will share power.
There will be some of the DUP's harder men and women who will insist there will be no government with "Sinn Féin/IRA" in any circumstances. Indeed, only on Thursday six Ballymena DUP councillors said they would not canvass for Dr Paisley because they were so vehemently opposed to powersharing. When the Doc is challenged by former ultra loyalists in his own backyard you have a sense of the internal tensions in the DUP. With UKUP leader Robert McCartney as the focus, other former loyalists or supporters are threatening to stand against DUP candidates. It will be nasty and interesting.
The DUP's counter-argument to the no-dealers is that if unionists don't rally behind the party they could have Martin McGuinness as prospective first minister. Sinn Féin will sell that same line to nationalists, but in reverse.
Keeping vague what happens after the elections allows the DUP to maintain a semblance of unity and cohesion during the campaign. But after March 7th hard decisions must be made. That's when we will learn whether Dr Paisley can still lead his party, or whether he is a prisoner to those who won't share power with Sinn Féin.
There is evidence he is preparing for a bruising post-election internal battle as the DUP has imposed strict discipline for any successful candidates who breach party rules, including heavy fines of some £2,000 (€2,986) and forced resignations.
The DUP is aiming for the biggest gains in this election, primarily at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party in constituencies such as South Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley and East Derry. Forty seats at this stage would seem ambitious but, barring major damage inflicted by anti-deal unionists, the DUP should be up on its current total of 32.
To try to survive the UUP will make great play on Dr Paisley's refusal to state definitively whether he will enter government with Martin McGuinness and hope that the DUP vote splinters. Ulster Unionists will also argue that unionists would be well minded not to cede too much power to Dr Paisley and that a vote for the UUP will safeguard the middle-ground, and help keep Paisley and McGuinness straight.
Sinn Féin, after galvanising its base with an ardfheis and dozens of meetings on policing, and notwithstanding its own more minor internal tensions, probably has never been in ruder grassroots health. It will face opposition from Republican Sinn Féin and other republican purist candidates but it too has a good chance to make gains in such target constituencies as Lagan Valley and South Antrim.
The SDLP won 18 seats in 2003 and will be disappointed if it doesn't at least maintain that figure. It believes it has real opportunities of advances in Strangford, Newry and Armagh, and South Down while facing difficulties in some other areas.
Alliance appears the most vulnerable party. In 2003, with almost half the vote that it won in 1998, it held on to its six seats.
But the sharks are circling this time and four of its six seats - Lagan Valley, North Down, South Antrim and Strangford - are under threat. Chinese welfare candidate Anna Lo in South Belfast, on the other hand, is aiming for a gain. Alliance argues that with first preferences plus the all-important transfers, plus the argument for maintaining the centre ground, it could confound predictions.
Dawn Purvis will be hard-pressed to hold the late David Ervine's seat for the Progressive Unionist Party in East Belfast, which would spell the end of the PUP in the Assembly, and possibly the end of the PUP as well.
In addition to Robert McCartney of the UKUP in North Down, there is a raft of smaller parties and Independents running, with hospitals candidate Dr Kieran Deeny in West Tyrone and ex-DUP man Paul Berry in Newry and Armagh hoping to hold their seats.