South Africa's ANC welcomes election win by Mugabe's party

South African reaction to the Zimbabwe election result was generally favourable, though divergent interpretations of the outcome…

South African reaction to the Zimbabwe election result was generally favourable, though divergent interpretations of the outcome - a narrow victory for Mr Robert Mugabe's Zanu-PF over Mr Morgan Tsvangirai's fledgling Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in the 120 contested seats - were offered by rival political parties.

As important was the positive reaction in the financial market, with the South African rand gaining six cents on the US dollar after falling to a record low of R7.20 to the dollar in May.

The ruling African National Congress, which hosted a ZanuPF delegation in May, congratulated Zimbabweans for voting in large numbers and peacefully. In line with President Thabo Mbeki's "quiet diplomacy", it avoided any reference to the intimidatory and violent actions of the Zanu-PF "war veterans" in the run-up to the election.

Addressing President Mugabe as well as Mr Tsvangirai, the ANC said: "By your exemplary conduct you have proved the prophets of doom wrong. We are proud of you and hope you will join hands and make Zimbabwe the pride of our continent that it has the capacity to be."

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The statement provided a pointer to one element of post-election South African policy towards Zimbabwe: encouraging reconciliation there after the bitter, and occasionally murderous, politicking. However, judging from MDC comments during the campaign, the status of the ANC and Mr Mbeki as honest brokers is not too high in its eyes.

President Mbeki's policy of not criticising Mr Mugabe publicly during the election might make the ageing Zimbabwean leader amenable to behind-the-scenes leverage to persuade him to withdraw his troops from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where they are helping to keep President Laurent Kabila in power.

As observers pointed out yesterday, a central component of the regional initiative to end the war in the DRC - in which Mr Mbeki and his Foreign Minister, Ms Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, are key players - is the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the central African state.

Dr Tony Hawkins, professor of business at the University of Zimbabwe, told The Irish Times last night that there were elements in post-election Zimbabwe who favoured the withdrawal of its forces from the DRC.

These included the large group of MDC parliamentarians, who would undoubtedly clamour for the withdrawal of the troops and an end to the ruinous cost of keeping them there. Also important was the refusal of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to advance further loans to Zimbabwe while its forces are still in the DRC.

But, Prof Hawkins added, Zimbabwe was already locked into a presidential election campaign, signalled yesterday when Mr Tsvangirai announced that he would contest the 2002 election.

In another development yesterday, South Africa's electricity utility, Eskom, announced that it would continue to supply power to Zimbabwe despite the huge debt (R140 million) run up by the Zimbabwe Electricity Supply Authority (Zesa).

In another conciliatory gesture, Eskom planned to open a trust account in Zimbabwe to enable Zesa to pay its debt in Zimbabwean dollars. The announcement followed a warning by Public Enterprises Minister Mr Jeff Radebe in April that South Africa might cut the supply of electricity if Zesa defaulted on payment.

These developments were a reminder of Zimbabwe's dependence on South Africa and of the pressure President Mbeki could exert to bring Mr Mugabe into line if he chose to.

South Africa's interest in regional stability and the positive image of southern Africa was again demonstrated yesterday. Following Zimbabwe's relatively peaceful election or, as the ANC put it, the triumph of democracy, South Africa's currency and bond markets responded positively.

But a recurrence of turmoil in Zimbabwe or an escalation in the civil wars in the DRC or Angola could again throw a gloomy shadow over the entire region.