FIANNA FAIL is set to lead the next government and, barring some extraordinary upset, Bertie Ahern will become the next Taoiseach when the 28th Dail assembles on June 26th.
In the last week of the election campaign, and in spite of a poor television showing by Mr Ahern against John Bruton, Fianna Fail surged towards the finishing line with a support level rising to 44 per cent.
The last three Irish Times/ MRBI opinion polls gave Fianna Fail's support at 43 per cent, 43 per cent and 42 per cent. But yesterday's survey gave the party that little bit extra.
And the "Dub" factor is huge. Mr Ahern has turned the situation around for Fianna Fail in the capital and his personal popularity has helped to lift its support level from a dismal 33 per cent in 1992 to an estimated 44 per cent now.
If the figures are borne out in counting centres today and tomorrow, Fianna Fail will have returned to the support levels it achieved in 1987 and again in 1989. In 1987, it won 81 Dail seats with 44 per cent of the vote. However, two years later, with precisely the same level of popular support, the party's Dail strength was cut to 77 seats.
In 1987, the party formed a government with the help of Independents. In 1989, it formed a coalition with the Progressive Democrats.
This time, the combined vote of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats comes to 48 per cent, which might leave the parties a few seats short of an overall majority. However, with 11 per cent of voters supporting smaller parties and Independents, Mr Ahern and Ms Harney should experience no real problem in putting the required numbers together.
This election should allow Fianna Fail to put the nightmare of 1992 behind it. In that year it had its worst election for 70 years, winning only 39 per cent of the vote and losing 9 Dail seats.
The Labour Party is a spectacular loser in this election. Even allowing for a 3 per cent margin of error, the party is going to shed seats like confetti all around the State and especially in Dublin. From a high of 32 Dail seats it will probably end up with less than 20.
Even in his worst nightmare, Dick Spring could hardly have contemplated an outcome as bad as this promises to be. It was clear from the time the party went into government with Fianna Fail in 1992 that there was going to be a backlash against the party. But the scale of that negative reaction was grossly underestimated.
The collapse of the Labour Party's vote in Dublin was the most telling manifestation of this trend. For the past two years, opinion polls have showed support for the party at about 12 per cent, sometimes up a few points, sometimes down. But this survey suggests a nightmare scenario.
An historic breakthrough in 1992, in which the party garnered 19 per cent of the popular vote has been transformed into a rout in 1997, with a free-falling vote which may end up at 8 per cent.
In Dublin, where the party won 26 per cent of the vote in 1992 it may be reduced to a support level of 7 per cent, which would put every seat in the capital at risk.
When the Dail was dissolved three weeks ago, the state of the parties was: Fianna Fail 67; Fine Gael 47; Labour Party 32; Progressive Democrats 8; Democratic Left 6; Greens 1 and Others 5.
On those figures, the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat alliance wilt need to gain 9 seats to secure a working majority in the Dail. If they fall short of that number, they may have to depend on a number of Independent or Green candidates to secure a majority.
What is certain from this survey is that the political landscape will be transformed because of the eclipse of the Labour Party. The 28th Dail will reflect a significant shift in the balance of political forces, which will have implications far beyond the formation of a government. We could see a return to the traditional pattern of the two big conservative parties alternating in government with the support of Independents and smaller parties.
John Bruton will be deeply disappointed at having to relinquish the position of Taoiseach. But there is some consolation to be found in these survey results. Support for the party has climbed back to the level it was at in 1989. And, in Dublin, support has risen from 17 to 22 per cent.
With votes of 27 per cent, 29 per cent and 25 per cent in the last three elections, Fine Gael will be hugely relieved to have clawed back public support. In 1992, when the party's vote dropped 4 per cent, it lost 10 seats. This time it would hope to recover the majority of those.
The election may not return John Bruton as Taoiseach, but it has consolidated his position as leader of Fine Gael. His excellent performance in the television debate with Mr Ahern will enhance his confidence and provide Fine Gael with a solid basis from which to attack any new government.
The Progressive Democrats have had very uneven electoral performances since their foundation in 1986. They secured 12 per cent of the vote in 1987, but this dropped to 5 per cent in 1989. In 1992, the party won 10 seats with 4.6 per cent of the vote - an amazing conversion ratio of votes to seats. Subsequently, their Dail strength was cut to eight when Pat Cox left the party for the European Parliament and Martin Cullen defected to Fianna Fail.
On these projected figures, Mary Harney's ambition to win 5 seats is an impossible dream. In fact, squeezed by Fianna Fail on one side and the Greens on the other, the party will do well to hold its present Dail representation as its overall support level falls to 4 per cent.
Democratic Left fought its first election in 1992 and won 4 seats with 3 per cent of the vote. Since then it has won two by-elections and, with a solid showing of 7 per cent support in Dublin, it promises to hold its outgoing Dail representation.
The Green Party threatened to be one of the surprises of this election. Its support level surged from 2 to 4 per cent during the campaign, but this survey pegs its support level at 3 per cent nationally and 5 per cent in Dublin. Its challenge faded somewhat, but it is still in the hunt for two or three seats.