ZIMBABWE: Zimbabwe's ruling party has again raised the spectre of a military coup if Robert Mugabe loses this weekend's presidential election.
Zanu-PF's chief of external affairs, Mr Didymus Mutasa, told South African television that the party would welcome military intervention if the opposition candidate, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, were to win the poll.
"Many, many of us did not go to fight the settler regime in order to install a British puppet like Tsvangirai," he said. "Under these circumstances, if there were to be a coup, we would support it very definitely."
Despite months of violence, intimidation and a massive propaganda campaign to portray Mr Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change as a front for white interests funded by Britain, Mr Mugabe is far from certain of winning even with significant rigging of votes.
If he attempts to hang on to power in the face of overwhelming public opposition, his success will probably depend on the army.
Despite warnings from the military top brass that it may not accept a Tsvangirai victory, the army's reaction is difficult to predict.
"Whoever wins the election, what the army does will determine who will take power," said Mr John Makumbe, chairman of the Zimbabwe crisis committee, made up of some 250 civil society organisations from unions to human rights groups.
Mr Tsvangirai said yesterday he thought a coup was unlikely. "There have been, in the heat of the moment, statements from President Mugabe . . . and others, threatening to overturn the will of the people. These statements are unfortunate and should not be taken seriously," he said.
The fear of punishment for past deeds may dictate how the army leadership reacts to a victory by Mr Tsvangirai. It is likely that he will have sought to reassure senior officers - such as air force chief Perence Shiri - who are vulnerable to prosecution for crimes against humanity for the Matabeleland massacres 20 years ago and other abuses.
The Zimbabwean army has an estimated 27,000 troops. From Monday, when the jittery nation will await results from the weekend poll, all army units will be "in full combat gear", according to the independent Financial Gazette yesterday.
All soldiers will be armed with rifles, ammunition, water and rations as if they were going into battle, said the newspaper. Dozens of army trucks are parked in ranks near Harare's city centre, some with turrets for water cannon and machineguns.
Mr Mugabe has vowed he will never give up power to Mr Tsvangirai, and he was backed a few weeks ago by the army's commander, Gen Vitalis Zvinavashe, who stated that he will not "take orders from or salute" a president who did not fight in the war against Rhodesian minority rule.
Senior army officers have been put in charge of administering the election, prompting many observers to question the fairness of the poll.