Speculation that Mowlam may be part of reshuffle

Speculation continues that the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, may feature in a reshuffle of Mr Tony Blair's cabinet expected…

Speculation continues that the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, may feature in a reshuffle of Mr Tony Blair's cabinet expected this week or next.

However, an authoritative British government source dismissed a Sunday newspaper report that Dr Mowlam would be moved from her Stormont post in a "concession" to Mr David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists.

The source described as "complete crap" a Sunday Telegraph suggestion that Dr Mowlam's transfer to another senior post would be designed to encourage the UUP to accept Friday's British-Irish proposal for the creation of a power-sharing executive on July 15th, before any start to IRA decommissioning.

It has been an open secret in political and official circles for some months that Dr Mowlam is keen to re-enter mainstream British politics after two gruelling years in Belfast.

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However, the source said the only effect of yesterday's story, like Mr Trimble's demand for her head two weeks ago, "is to make her departure less likely".

Dr Mowlam yesterday confirmed that she had opened a tentative discussion with the Prime Minister about her next posting. And while insisting she wanted to remain in Belfast for as long as she could "help the process", she said: "If in his [Mr Blair's] judgment, or in other people's judgment who he listens to, I am no longer any help, then of course I will go."

Mr Blair would be deeply resistant to any suggestion that Mr Trimble could dictate the composition of his government. That consideration apart, his biggest difficulty would appear to be finding a suitable alternative post for Dr Mowlam, who is the most popular member of his administration and who almost certainly expects promotion for her role in the peace process.

It is believed Dr Mowlam has entertained ambitions for the Foreign Office. However, the conventional wisdom at Westminster is that Mr Robin Cook is considered to have had "a good war" over Kosovo and is safe.

Dr Mowlam is known not to be particularly keen to assume Dr Jack Cunningham's role as "cabinet enforcer". And while there is speculation that Mr Blair might want to capitalise on her popularity by giving her a high-profile election campaigning role, personality problems might arise if, as current reports have it, Mr Peter Mandelson's return to the front line is also to be by that route.

Mr Blair could conceivably grant Mr Trimble's wish and appoint Mr Mandelson to the Northern Ireland Office. But on that issue, as on many others, Mr Trimble presides over a highly divided party. Asked about Mr Trimble's enthusiasm for a Mandelson appointment, one of his senior colleagues said: "I am happy to assume my leader was only joking."