Mr Dick Spring will step down today as leader of the Labour Party after 15 years of undreamt-of successes and some devastating failures. Announcing his decision to members of the parliamentary Labour Party at Leinster House, Mr Spring is expected to thank them for their continuing support, but to insist that a new leader is required at this stage to inject a fresh vibrancy into the party.
In that regard, the party leader is not expected to give any indication of his favoured successor. A reliable source said he would be "flabbergasted" if Mr Spring took sides in the forthcoming leadership race.
Because of the intense surprise which was generated within the party by Mr Spring's decision, low-key campaigning got under way in the Dail only yesterday when the deputy leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, and the party whip, Mr Brendan Howlin, made contact with TDs and senators.
The other possible candidate, Ms Roisin Shortall, is expected to make her position known to party colleagues today. A date for the election will not be set until tomorrow, when the general council of the party is to meet.
In order to minimise party infighting and prepare for the two pending Dail by-elections in Limerick East and Dublin North, the council is expected to choose an early election date. There was speculation last night that the new leader would be chosen on November 13th.
The electorate will be composed of the parliamentary party and the general council. They will be given a mandate to choose an interim leader until a full-scale election, involving all party members, takes place in four years.
There are 64 votes in all between the parliamentary party and the general council. The 20 TDs and senators will be able to choose a new leader along with 44 general council members.
A number of council members do not have a vote, and there is crossover membership between the council and the parliamentary party. There are informal blocks of votes from SIPTU, Dublin and the midlands on the council, and the overall bias would tend to favour a rural contender.
Given their past performance, however, neither Mr Quinn nor Mr Howlin could be sure of their support; they will make their choice in the long-term interests of the party.
Because of the disparate background and allegiances of the general council members, the outcome of the election is impossible to call.
The last time the council members exercised their powers, in June, they rejected Seanad nomination applications from a number of former ministers and senior party members who had lost their seats in the general election, in favour of ambitious backbenchers.
The only certainty is that Mr Quinn and Mr Howlin are the front-runners in this race. A second candidate from Dublin would be likely to split the vote in the capital and hand an advantage to Mr Howlin. Mr Michael D. Higgins is unlikely to be a candidate.
Mr Spring has chosen to step down as leader while he is still in undisputed control of the party. The mutterings of dissent after a disastrous general election, in June, were muted; reaction to the party's abysmal showing in last week's presidential election would have been less so, but there would have been no open challenge to the leadership.
In the Dail yesterday, Mr Spring appeared in great good humour, relishing exchanges with Government ministers at Question Time and chatting amiably with his colleagues. A decision had been irrevocably taken, a weight had lifted.
Today is being set aside by Labour as Mr Spring's day, a day for looking back on the party's triumphs under his leadership when it nominated a president and won 33 Dail seats.
Next week members will face a different reality when they choose his successor and begin the long, hard and painful work of reorganising and reorientating the party in preparation for the by-elections and for the general election that may come sooner than many of them would wish.