There is an old saying in what I believe is Catalan that goes: No hay senal de llover como el aqua ver caer - There is no better sign of rain than to see it falling. It is this sentiment, taken to extremes - or, to be more precise, extended out to 40 days - that lies behind the legend of St Swithin, whose period of baleful influence upon our climate allegedly begins today.
Swithin was a devout Bishop of Winchester, renowned for his humility, who died in AD 862 and left strict instructions that he was to be buried "in a most vile and unworthy place". And so he was. But in due course it was decided that his body should have a more fitting and luxurious resting place, and on July 15th, 971, an attempt was made to move his bones. According to legend, a sudden deluge foiled this first attempt, and every attempt for 40 days thereafter, until the plan was finally abandoned. Hence the superstition that, if it rains on St Swithin's Day, there will be rain on each succeeding day for many weeks - or, as a more detailed version of the forecast has it:
Saint Swithin's Day, if it do rain,
For forty days it will remain;
Saint Swithin's Day, if it be fair,
For forty days 'twill rain nae mair.
The Swithin superstition is, of course, an English one, but something similar is found in many European countries. In France, for example, St Protase (June 19th) is credited with a local influence almost identical to that of Swithin. Similarly, in Flanders, the rainy saint is Godelieve, while Italy's Swithin is Bartholomew. In Germany, the traditional date to watch is July 27th - Siebenschlufertag - or the feast day of the Seven Sleepers of Ephesus, who control the weather for forty days thereafter. And, for all I know, there may be an Irish Swithin lurking somewhere in the annals.
The widespread nature of the superstition may have something to do with the view held by many meteorologists that by around mid-July each year most European summers have settled down to a pattern which often persists for the remainder of the season - either cool, rather wet and changeable, or else mostly warm and sunny. If this be so, the general character of the weather at St Swithin's Day or thereabouts may not be too bad a guide as to what to expect for the remainder of the summer. Others, however, are more inclined to agree with the poet John Gay:
Let not such vulgar tales debase thy mind,
For neither Paul nor Swithin rules the clouds and wind.