Another potential crisis faces the political leaders when they arrive at Hillsborough today, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Mr Bertie Ahern and Mr Tony Blair arrive in Hillsborough this afternoon for another exercise in crisis management with the pro-Belfast Agreement parties, just as they did this time last year in Weston Park.
The main issues twelve months ago were policing, decommissioning, demilitarisation and safeguarding the institutions of the Good Friday deal. We have come a long way since then with varying but considerable degrees of progress in all these areas.
We have a new police service; the IRA has decommissioned twice, albeit in secret; the British army claims there has been significant "normalisation" although republicans are distinctly unimpressed; and even Mr David Trimble says all the institutions of the agreement are working well.
Now the focus is on one matter: maintaining a sufficient degree of unionist confidence to ensure the stability of the Belfast Agreement and of Mr Trimble's leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party.
Along with Drumcree and next May's Assembly elections, it all points to continuing uncertainty and political volatility.
The Taoiseach and British Prime Minister had a good Weston Park but they are less certain about Hillsborough and resolving Mr Trimble's woes. "I don't think anyone is expecting initiatives or breakthroughs at Hillsborough," said one senior London observer.
The word from Dublin and London last night was that the British and Irish leaders will be in listening mode, and the main object of today is to ensure that the North can proceed relatively calmly through the summer to September when there will be another concentrated effort to ease the pressure on the First Minister.
To arrive safely at crisis or breakthrough point in September what the Yes politicians need most is peace on the streets, at the interfaces, at Drumcree, in Belfast, on the Twelfth, and at the remaining contentious parades.
It is perfectly possible that we will all get through Drumcree and the Twelfth unscathed.
The Loyalist Commission, with the blessing of Mr Trimble, as well as Johnny Adair, the rest of the UDA, and the UVF, have issued a no first strike commitment. Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Mitchel McLaughlin of Sinn Féin have urged republicans to play their part in dampening down sectarian tensions.
Fine words and pledges. To quote the London official: "If everyone means what they say then we should be in for a peaceful summer . . . but sometimes it doesn't turn out quite like that."
At least people are speaking the same language. All the pro-agreement parties say they agree that reducing community tensions is an absolute priority.
The next step is to translate words into actions and obviously the politicians closest to the IRA, UDA and UVF have most influence here.
As for developing greater unionist confidence in the agreement that is quite a challenge when placed against the backdrop of allegations of IRA involvement in Colombia, Castlereagh and targeting, not to mention the latest dissident republican assassination threat against unionist politicians.
There is no common vocabulary here. Sinn Féin says the allegations are "unfounded" and part of a smear campaign against republicans by "securocrats". Unionists say the IRA is up to its neck in "doing what it does best".
Where ever the truth lies, on the ground - among many ordinary unionists - there is a feeling that the IRA is having its cake and eating it. Even some senior republicans are prepared to acknowledge the genuine disaffection.
How to resolve the problem when all we hear is allegation and denial ad nauseam is quite a conundrum. President Bush's special envoy, Mr Richard Haass, has devised a formula which will be explored today.
He has suggested that irrespective of the rights and wrongs surrounding Colombia, Castlereagh, and the hit list, if the IRA drew a line under these issues and in future pledged to keep away from areas that undermine politics then what passes for normal business could resume.
Considering Mr Gerry Adams's commitment to play a "leadership role" in procuring an end to republican paramilitary violence then the Haass proposal has merit, if not tomorrow then perhaps in the autumn.