IN the previous opinion poll, conducted nine days ago, it was clear that many uncommitted electors had not been influenced by the first campaign weekend of promises and argument, and a substantial volume remained uncommitted.
In today's survey, conducted last Wednesday - nine days before polling day - there has been but a marginal reduction in the undecided; the relatively few who have moved are very thinly distributed; and there are no indications that any one party will capture even a reasonable share of the still crucial floating vote.
The remarkable stability that has applied in party support terms, over the past four surveys before and during the campaign is quite exceptional at this juncture and indicates that no leader or party has succeeded in engaging the electorate to any meaningful extent.
This is supported by the fact that satisfaction ratings have increased noticeably, right across the board, inclusive of the Government per se. This, too, is exceptional at this stage, and it would appear that the electorate is prepared to sit back and wait, almost implying that it matters little who wins the election.
What other conclusion can be drawn when the support levels for all parties have not altered to any significant extent for almost two months, despite the fact that the public has been bombarded with promises from all directions?
With less than a week to go, this situation poses many belated questions for party strategists, most of whom will be forced to rethink their plans in a final effort to influence the elusive element who hold the key to a decisive result. We will return to this later.
Fianna Fail - The party's current figure of 42 per cent represents a one point reduction on the 43 per cent of each of the three previous polls. This is within the statistical variation of the sample, and does not indicate the start of a downturn which was evident in the party's figures in the campaigns of 1987, 1989 and 1992.
Of considerable significance, however, is the fact that Bertie Ahern is now, for the first time since February 1995, the highest rated of all party leaders. My reading of the current situation is literally a repeat of my comment of nine days ago. If the election was held on Wednesday last, Fianna Fail would be the largest party in Dail Eireann, and would be planning to lead the new government after a very close contest. However, the reality is that a crucial six days now remain, and all will be endeavouring to spark off what could be a vital and decisive late swing.
Fine Gael - Despite the highest ever satisfaction rating for the Government, coupled with a further upturn in John Bruton's personal rating as leader of Fine Gael, the party remains on 26 per cent, identical to that of the two previous polls. Since Fine Gael surged to 30 per cent in the March opinion poll, following 27 per cent in January, the potential is there for a repeat of its historical pattern of increasing its support as the campaign draws to a close. This arose in each of the three previous general elections.
Labour The Lab our Party vote has been very stable over the last six opinion polls since December last, and on the basis of its performance in three of the elections in the 1980s and 1990s, has the capacity to maximise its return of seats to votes to a greater extent than any other party. Furthermore, the rating of Dick Spring as party leader has also increased by two points over the past nine days, and is positioned just three points below its relatively high level throughout 1996 up to March 1997.
Progressive Democrats - PD support at 7 per cent is identical to that of nine days ago, which in turn was just one point down on each of the two previous polls.
This reflects a very stable positioning for the party, particularly mince Mary Harney has experienced a drop of seven points in satisfaction ratings and an increase of 10 in dissatisfaction ratings over the past nine days. Although current dissatisfaction at 33 per cent is the highest since she was elected leader, it has had no adverse effect on the party support position. Should this current situation be repeated in the election, the Progressive Democrats leader would certainly be listening to what Bertie Ahern has to say. However, the composite majority would be uncomfortably tight.
Democratic Left - This party has been positioned consistently at 2 per cent for the last nine opinion polls since November 1995, and from a final opinion poll level of 2 per cent in 1992 obtained just 3 per cent first preferences in that election. This yielded four Dail seats following which the party won two by elections.
Green Party Currently up to 4 per cent, which equates with its highest ever MRBI impact since November 1995, the Green Party in nominating candidates in 26 constituencies is seen by many commentators to be poised for a breakthrough.
In 1992 the party's 1.4 per cent vote was distributed over 18 constituencies and returned one deputy, Trevor Sargent in Dublin North. Much will depend on the level of the party's first preferences in the actual targeted constituencies, since 4 per cent across 26 implies a limited impact in many. The survey indicates that the party's current potential is mainly in Dublin, where it is fielding candidates in all 11 constituencies.
The Undecided - In the 1992 election, the switchers to Labour were very significantly urban, tending to be female with almost half living in Dublin, and a similar proportion aged under 34. In this survey the demographic characteristics of the 14 per cent who remain uncommitted is essentially parallel to that of the electorate in general, and one effect of this is that it is relatively difficult to target the entire segment. This in turn is very likely another reason why there has been so little positive movement towards supporting any of the parties.
When the undecided are weighted by the "leaning" tendencies, it is evident that Fianna Fail suffers marginally and the Progressive Democrats would gain one point.
Commenting on the final opinion poll of the 1992 election campaign, on the contrasting fortunes of Fianna Fail and Labour at the time, I expressed the opinion that we were beginning to move towards the European norm of coalition government.
Just five years later, for the first time, the Irish electorate is now offered a choice between two coalition alternatives. Traditionally, Irish people vote primarily for the candidate - and party - of their choice and the coalition concept is extraneous to their thinking on polling day.
The sixpoint gap - precisely as it was in the last poll - represents no more than a preference, and is quite independent of actual voting intentions. This gap in preferences is considerably less relevant than the real issue as to whether or not we will have a decisive result, in terms of a working majority on polling day.
The current party support figures do not suggest that the new government will have a comfortable working majority, and whether or not the final week will provide a breakthrough is now a matter for the politicians. Many must realise that the manner of their approaches to date has been unsuccessful, and is unlikely to win over the pivotal voters on the day.