The stand-off between the Ulster Unionists and the British and Irish governments over decommissioning continued last night, as Mr David
Trimble confirmed his readiness to veto their proposals at tomorrow's crucial session of the Stormont talks.
The UUP leader emerged from 75 minutes of talks with the British
Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, declaring: "As things stand we are not in a position to support the governments' proposals. And if it is put to a vote on Wednesday, we would vote against." The scope for compromise diminished as Mr Trimble demanded both a Sinn Fein commitment to actual disarmament, and "the ultimate sanction that they could be excluded if they fail to meet that commitment".
While resisting any changes to the agreed British/Irish position,
Mr Blair promised to consider Mr Trimble's suggestions for
"confidence building" measures aimed at the unionist community.
Dr Mo Mowlam this morning attempts to shift the unionist focus from decommissioning to the tough requirements spelt out for republicans by the Mitchell principles, and the assurance that any settlement will be governed by the principle of consent. Writing in
The Irish Times, the Northern Ireland Secretary says: "There will be no change in the status of Northern Ireland unless a majority of the people there want it. Agreement between the parties, and the consent of the people of Northern Ireland and Parliament are required for any new settlement. "That `triple lock' ensures that neither community -
unionist or nationalist - will be forced into an outcome they do not support. That is our cast-iron guarantee."
However, barring any last minute compromise by Mr Trimble, the immediate guarantee appears to be a direct threat to the timetable both governments have agreed for the start of all-party negotiations on September 15th.
Mr Blair is expected to speak to the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and again with Mr Trimble before tomorrow's plenary session at Stormont.
But while Mr Trimble maintained there were "some possibilities for progress", Dr Mowlam indicated there was no likelihood of amendment to the decommissioning plan agreed with Dublin. "The fundamentals remain the same but I'm sure there could be some discussion around the fundamentals," she said.
And while Downing Street drew some comfort from Mr Trimble's insistence that he would not walk away from the process, London and
Dublin this morning face the simple truth that a unionist rejection tomorrow could ultimately force them to scrap the existing talks process and seek an alternative format.
Clearly playing for time, Mr Trimble yesterday suggested that the crunch vote on decommissioning might be postponed, to allow wider
"clarification" and consultation.
But nationalist sources reacted suspiciously to this idea, saying
"it would send all the wrong signals" about London's determination to stick to the timetable which was itself crucial to securing the renewed IRA ceasefire. While not entirely discounting such a decision by the two governments, one SDLP negotiator said he thought postponement of the vote "very, very unlikely".
Any government inclination to postpone, in the hope of keeping the
UUP aboard the "settlement train" will be balanced by a keen appraisal of Mr Trimble's declared requirements.
His suggestion that the threat of expulsion should attend his decommissioning requirement runs directly counter to the specific assurance given to Sinn Fein by the British government in its letter of July 9th. See also page 9 Editorial comment: page 17