The Berlin Summit next Wednesday and Thursday was scheduled to be an earnest affair dealing with Agenda 2000. Now it will be nothing of the sort. Until Monday, the shock resignation of Germany's Finance Minister, Oskar Lafontaine was likely to cause the most ripples as the 15 heads of government discussed the community's finances for the next seven years. The changes necessary in the structural and agricultural funds to expand membership without going bankrupt were top of the agenda.
As at all summits, 90 per cent of the issues are agreed in advance. German Chancellor, Gerhard Schroder came to Dublin yesterday as he toured the capitals to ensure a deal next week. Since this summit is about money, the outstanding matters mean tough negotiations and greater chances of failure. Now the sudden and dramatic complications have thrown all into disarray and there is talk that the summit may overrun.
One matter that has to be got out of the way in advance is the replacement for Jacques Santer. Yesterday, Bertie Ahern and the chancellor discussed the options. Then comes the issue of the new commissioners. As both the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste Mary Harney were out of the country for St Patrick's Day events, it is only now, at the weekend, that minds are concentrating.
The main German summit will be in Cologne in June. It was there the new Commission President was to be negotiated and states were to submit their commissioner nominees so the portfolios could be decided between then and start-up of the new Commission on January 1st. Now all is changed.
A new commission will be in place, either temporary or permanent, long before Cologne. The Finns take over the EU presidency then. It is their first presidency - but don't let that worry anyone. Small states tend to have better presidencies because they devote more time and energy to the purpose. Indeed Finland sent observers to our summit in 1996 to see how it's done. But all accept we are in uncharted waters now.