The Government's proposal to remove the automatic right of citizenship from Irish children of non-national parents is on course to be approved comfortably, according to the results of an Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
Some 57 per cent will vote in favour of the constitutional amendment next Friday, the poll shows, up three points from the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll taken last month. Just 22 per cent will vote against, down 2 points, with 21 per cent having no opinion.
The poll was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday among a national quota sample of 2,000 voters throughout all constituencies in the State. Although it was taken 10 days before polling, the clear margin in favour shows the Government in a strong position to succeed in its aim of restricting the automatic citizenship rights of children born on the island of Ireland to those with at least one parent who has been lawfully resident in Ireland for three of the previous four years.
There is clear support for the proposal in all age groups, social categories, regions, and among supporters of all political parties. Supporters of the Government parties are the most supportive.
Some 62 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters are in favour, 21 per cent against and 17 per cent have no opinion. Among Progressive Democrats supporters 77 per cent are in favour, 18 per cent against and 5 per cent have no opinion. Supporters of Fine Gael, which is also urging a Yes vote, are 59 per cent in favour, 22 per cent against and 18 per cent have no opinion.
Although Labour, the Green Party and Sinn Féin are urging a No vote, their supporters are in favour of the amendment, although by somewhat smaller margins than the pro-amendment parties. Some 55 per cent of Labour voters are in favour, 30 per cent against and 15 per cent have no opinion. Sinn Féin supporters are 57 per cent in favour, 29 per cent against and 14 per cent have no opinion. Green Party voters are 60 per cent in favour, 24 per cent against and 17 per cent have no opinion.
The youngest and oldest voters are less supportive of it than others, but are still in favour by a very clear margin. Within both the 18-24 age group and among the over-65s, 51 per cent are in favour, 22 per cent against and 27 per cent have no opinion. In contrast, within the 35-49 age group, 62 per cent are in favour, just 19 per cent against and 19 per cent have no opinion.
There are regional disparities too with the margin in favour in Leinster (excluding Dublin) greater than elsewhere. In Leinster, 60 per cent say they will support the amendment, 19 per cent will vote against, while 21 per cent have no opinion. In Dublin, 58 per cent will vote in favour, 21 per cent against and 21 per cent have no opinion. In Connacht/Ulster, 55 per cent will vote in favour, 26 per cent against and 20 per cent have no opinion. Finally in Munster, 55 per cent are in favour, 21 per cent against and 24 per cent have no opinion.