Analysis: A new report about the Leaving Cert marking system is unlikely to end the controversy over the issue, writes Seán Flynn.
There are, they say, lies, damn lies and statistics.
The authors of a new report on grading in the Leaving Cert tend to dismiss the popular view that some subjects are easier than others.
Yet on the basis of the cold statistical evidence, it seems unlikely the report will do much to change the common view that some subjects are marked more severely than others.
The statistics are striking. In June, the percentage securing an honour (Grade C3 or higher) in the Leaving Cert varied from 66 per cent in higher level physics to a staggering 98 per cent in music.
Many students, teachers and parents say there is only one conclusion: music is easier than physics. Not so, say the authors of this report.
In a complex and densely written report they tend to argue that the variations in grades are down to natural aptitude for a subject or the overall standard of a cohort taking a particular subject.
In truth, students, many teachers and many parents will be unconvinced by this line of argument. For them the facts speak for themselves.
On the basis of results last June, take art, music and home economics if you want to maximise your prospects of a honours grade at higher level.
You could also be fairly confident of gaining an honour in language subjects.
But the advice from those who pour over the statistics would be to avoid "difficult" subjects like physics, classical studies and agricultural economics.
In recent years there is increasing evidence that students are hunting down what they perceive as "easier" subjects in order to maximise their CAO points.
The popularity of history, in particular, has been undermined by the perception that it is a long and demanding course which is marked more severely than other subjects.
Last year the Government-appointed task force on science found what it regarded as clear-cut evidence that science subjects (especially physics and chemistry) were being marked more severely than other subjects. This, it warned, was one of the factors which helped to explain the fall-off in students interested in these subjects.
The new report is much less clear-cut in relation to this and a range of other issues. Broadly, it says the students taking these subjects have higher academic achievement. In simple terms, they are "competing" against students of a higher calibre.
One of the co-authors of the report, Mr Tom Kellaghan, says there is no simple answer, no panacea which would allow every subject to be treated equally.
Since our measurement of achievement is different in each subject, it follows that there can be no uniform grading pattern for the entire Leaving Cert exam.
The report recommends:
Greater conformity across subjects in the design and format of exam papers;
Investigation of any departure from regular marking standards in any subject;
Detailed and unambiguous marking schemes;
New procedures to deal with borderline grades in a standard manner.