Berlin does not believe that a change of president in France would mean tearing up the stability treaty, write ARTHUR BEESLEY and DEREK SCALLY
FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE’S ascent in the French election has the potential to change the tone of Europe’s response to the sovereign debt emergency, if not the substance.
Although few observers in Brussels or Berlin would dare to write off President Nicolas Sarkozy at this point, Hollande’s lead in the polls points to a change of power in Paris after the second round vote in a fortnight.
If that happens, the arrival of the sedate Socialist leader in the crucible of the crisis would herald a sharp turn away from the mercurial bombast practised by Sarkozy.
Although Sarkozy plays a secondary role to Chancellor Angela Merkel in the Franco-German duo, his imperious style is perceived by their many critics to represent the very worst of the “Merkozy” alliance.
No one in the euro zone doubts that the alignment between Berlin and Paris is a prerequisite for progress in the debt debacle. But the dictatorial manner in which they set the agenda grates with other countries.
At this stage in the saga, Sarko’s hectoring and his disparaging attitude to smaller countries arouses ingrained disdain.
In the words of one senior figure who has seen the French leader up close, his hyperactivity makes him like an “unguided missile”. Taoiseach Enda Kenny is far from being the only European leader to have endured an unbridled “Gallic spat” in the EU summit chamber with the volatile French president.
Right now Merkel must wait to see if she will work with the devil she knows or the one she doesn’t. While few in Berlin are prepared to speak openly about the French contest, it is under close observation all the same.
Even if the chancellor chose not to campaign directly for Sarkozy, she backed him nonetheless. Thus echoes of her support can still be heard within her administration. “Sarkozy is the better president for Germany because he shares our view of budgetary discipline, accepts the fiscal pact and rejects euro bonds,” said Michael Link, deputy foreign minister.
Although Link has nominal responsibility for the Franco-German relationship, attitudes are more guarded within the chancellor’s inner circle. Would a new Socialist face in the Élysée be any more or any less predictable than the incumbent? There is uncertainty in Berlin, yes, but no little confidence that the relationship with Paris will remain on track.
As Merkel’s predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, remarked this week: she has no choice. “All presidents and chancellors have to learn the lesson that, unless France and Germany have a common position, you can’t decide anything in Europe,” Schröder said.
In the Brussels bureaucracy, meanwhile, no one in the upper echelons is prepared to speak openly. In private conversation about the Hollande campaign, however, two themes prevail.
The first is uncertainty over his fiscal policy. As Hollande comes under renewed attack from Sarkozy over his taxation and spending proposals, some in Brussels wonder whether the Socialist candidate might deviate from the EU-approved consolidation plan for French public finances.
This is a particular concern in light of the loss of the country’s triple-A rating and lingering fears that the debt crisis could suddenly erupt again.
The second focus of attention is on Hollande’s demand to reopen the stability treaty. Only months after a difficult but rapid negotiation of the pact, Hollande’s push for growth-oriented changes has potential to upset the deal.
Sill, European officials believe his argument to be intrinsic to the electoral battle. “Don’t take too seriously all statements made in the heat of an election,” said a close observer of the fray in Paris.
Furthermore, there is no great stress in Berlin over Hollande’s treaty stance. The chancellor sent aides to sound out his camp on this very point. Germans now note with some satisfaction that Hollande has dropped talk of “renegotiation” in favour of “supplementing” the pact.
“I don’t think [Hollande] will be able to change the fiscal pact – that it is agreed,” said Schröder. “What he may achieve is to complement the fiscal pact with a growth pact.” Indeed, some German analysts suggest Berlin might be prepared to grant Hollande a non-binding “auxiliary protocol” for growth in the treaty.
The great unknown at this stage is whether the incumbent will manage to pull his campaign from the brink and engineer an unexpected victory in the final round.
Political observers say a re-elected Sarkozy would be likely to adopt the mantle of invincibility, doggedly promoting new immigration controls and the dilution of the Schengen passport-free travel regime. More noisy euro zone initiatives would be in store too.