Successor to Flynn is main talking point in Leinster House

As the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, prepares to meet the German Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder, in Dublin tonight, the question of who…

As the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, prepares to meet the German Chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder, in Dublin tonight, the question of who will succeed Mr Padraig Flynn as Ireland's EU Commissioner is the main talking point in Leinster House.

The timing of the replacement for Mr Jacques Santer as Commission president will top the agenda at Government Buildings, as well as the German timescale for the completion of negotiations on Agenda 2000, including CAP reform.

The Chancellor's visit to Dublin is the last of his consultations with member-states before the Berlin summit next week. This will try to reach agreement on the allocation of EU funding from 2000 to 2006.

Referring to the appointment of a new commission, including a new president and Irish commissioner, Mr Ahern said last night there was "no consensus as yet amongst our European partners as to the duration of the current caretaker Commission or as to the timing or procedure for its replacement".

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The Government may have to take a position on Mr Flynn's future as early as Monday's Cabinet meeting if, as expected, the Berlin summit on Wednesday and Thursday agrees that Mr Santer should resign right away. Mr Ahern is expected to hold preliminary telephone discussions on this matter with the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, later today.

The Progressive Democrats are known to be opposed to the renomination of Mr Flynn for any period but would be prepared to live with him remaining in a caretaker capacity in the short term.

The ideal for the Government would be for Mr Flynn to oversee the finalisation of the structural and cohesion funds packages and regionalisation. If these were completed next week, the Government would have no reason to retain his services and the domestic political embarrassment which Mr Flynn has generated since January would be defused.

The names of possible contenders have been repeatedly raised in Dublin political circles. In spite of suggestions that some Opposition figures would ably qualify - Mr Alan Dukes or Mr Dick Spring - Fianna Fail is unlikely to give the job to someone from outside its party.

The present Dail arithmetic practically precludes the minority Government from nominating one of its TDs and risking a by-election defeat. Two legal figures are being tipped as potential nominees, the Attorney General, Mr David Byrne SC, and one of his predecessors, Mr John Murray SC. Some are backing Mr Murray, now a member of the European Court of Justice, whose credentials are judged impeccable.

The former junior minister for European affairs, Ms Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, who left politics three years ago, is highly regarded but sources said yesterday she was "an outsider".

After early speculation that the Fianna Fail Munster MEP, Mr Gerard Collins, might secure the nomination, sources yesterday said this possibility had diminished in favour of him remaining in the European Parliament. Even though Mr Pat Cox MEP, leader of the Liberal group in the parliament, is also mentioned, he is unlikely to be asked by Government.

Meanwhile, the Fine Gael leader, Mr John Bruton, said the entire government which "presided over the frauds and favouritism in the EU-supported beef industry" would have had to resign if the standards applied by the European Parliament had been focused on this State. Not only would the ministers directly involved have had to step down but all the cabinet, "including a number in office today", would have been forced to go on the basis of collective responsibility.